Week 12 NFL Predictions

Manning V Brady XIV is the marquee match-up of week 12

Another Sunday is upon us, which means another slate of NFL games are on the horizon. Last week saw the last undefeated team in the league, Kansas City, lose that distinction, having been beaten by Denver in the Rocky mountains. In this weeks marquee match-up those same Broncos will take on New England in the fourteenth instalment of Manning V Brady. Here's my take on that game and all the other NFL action on tap for this weekend.

New York Jets @ Baltimore

The Jets have been a nightmare to predict this season thanks to their incredible inconsistency, leaving me with a tough decision to make as they take on the Ravens this week. Baltimore suffered a tough overtime defeat in Chicago last Sunday during that weather affected game, while the Jets were blown out by the Bills. With neither team in resounding form the fact that Baltimore are at home and have a better quarterback  tilts me in their direction. Jets 17, Ravens 28

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Both of these teams enter week 12 at 4-6 and three games out of Cincinnati in first place in the AFC north with their play-off hopes rapidly fading. Coming off a surprising win against the Lions Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have a bit of momentum coming into this one, and while Cleveland have been steady if not spectacular since Jason Cambell took over at QB it's difficult seeing them outscoring the Pittsburgh offense if it can replicate last weeks Antonio Brown led outburst. Steelers 23, Browns 14

Tampa Bay @ Detroit

All of a sudden the Lions are under a bit of pressure to win this game following their aforementioned let down against Pittsburgh last week,  and with the Buccaneers on a two game winning streak they'll be wary of the threat they pose. Mike Glennon has been widely praised for his performances under centre for Tampa Bay, but he'll have a tough assignment here as the fearsome Detroit defensive front bears down on him. At home it's hard to look past Detroit in this one, but expect the Buccaneers to put up a fight in the motor city. Buccaneers 20, Lions 30

Minnesota @ Green Bay
 
In normal circumstances the Packers would  be heavy favourites to beat the Vikings at Lambeau field, but with Aaron Rodgers walking wounded and Scott Tolzien struggling in his place Minnesota will be sniffing an upset. However I don't think the Vikings have enough to genuinely trouble Green Bay, who know shutting down Adrian Peterson and putting the ball in Christian Ponder's hands will be key. So long as Tolzien doesn't have too much to do and can just hand the ball of the Eddie Lacy the Packers should pick up the win and head into Thanksgiving with a 6-5 record. Vikings 17, Packers 24

Jacksonville @ Houston

One of these teams was expected to be terrible in 2013, the other not so much. But terrible they are, and absolutely no one should choose to watch this game over any of the other early kick-offs unless they're being held at gun point. The Texans just appear to be in such a mess, with a quarterback controversy spawned by Gary Kubiak's decision last week to bench Case Keenum for Matt Shaub mid-game. The Jaguars are a bad, bad team but they know this is a prime opportunity for them to pick up win number two of the season. The Texans are so hapless I can actually see that happening. Jaguars 21, Texans 14

San Diego @ Kansas City

The Chiefs ability to bounce back from their first defeat of the season will be tested here, although their AFC west rivals San Diego have been on a poor run of form lately and lost to Miami 20-16 last week. Going into Arrowhead is a tricky proposition for any visiting team, and although Kansas City were beaten in Denver they gave a good account of themselves and their excellent defensive unit should be able to keep the Chargers stuttering offense in check enough for Alex Smith to lead them back to winning ways. Chargers 13, Chiefs 24

Carolina @ Miami

This is a classic trap game for the Panthers, travelling to play Miami on the road after a statement win over New England on Monday night. With Carolina on a short week and on the road they could come unstuck in South Florida, but with a stellar defense and Cam Newton playing the best football of his career they should, on paper, have enough to deal with those obstacles comfortably. The Dolphins know they need a win to keep pace in the AFC east, but they couldn't have asked for a more difficult game and the Panthers should reinstate their credentials as a major contender in the NFC despite coming off a short week. Panthers 26, Dolphins 21

Chicago @ St. Louis

The Rams have emerged this season as the 'ugly sister' of the NFC west, lagging behind the other three teams in the division as the only team below .500. Chicago on the other hand are tied for the lead in the NFC north even with Jay Cutler struggling with injury, mainly thanks to the emergence of Josh McCown as one of the leagues most reliable backup quarterbacks. St. Louis have a very good defensive front so they should be able to put pressure on McCown, but the Bears solid running game led by Matt Forte gives McCown a useful out. Unfortunately the Rams have been dealing with a quarterback injury of their own, and even though Kellen Clemens hasn't been as bad as feared he'll have a tough time putting points up on the Bears vaunted D. Expect a road win with Chicago keeping pace in the play-off race. Bears 24, Rams 16

Indianapolis @ Arizona

Cardinals coach Bruce Arians hosts the team with which he won the NFL coach of the year award last season in a fascinating encounter between two play-off contenders. Arizona may have beat Jacksonville last week but that achievement should be taken with a pinch of salt, and despite Carson Palmer improving with each game I still don't trust him to out-duel the Colts Andrew Luck. While Luck is without Reggie Wayne he's good enough to utilise his remaining weapons, but it could be a great game with Arians able to call upon his intimate knowledge of the Cardinals opponents. Colts 31, Cardinals 23

Tennessee @ Oakland

Coming off a mini bye week the Titans will fancy their chances of upending Oakland, who this week anointed Matt McGloin their starter at quarterback. Yes, McGloin was impressive in defeating Houston last week. But he's an undrafted rookie who struggled to hold onto his job at Penn State. I'm yet to be convinced he can be a steady signal caller in the NFL, and in this battle of 4-6 teams that could be the difference. The Titans raced out to a lead against the Colts two Thursdays ago and despite the fact they couldn't hold onto it I was impressed with Chris Johnson and their running game. If Johnson can repeat that performance the Titans should have no trouble scoring on Oakland, who recently allowed Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles to put up 49 points against them. Titans 28, Raiders 19

Dallas @ New York Giants

A crucial NFC east battle, a win for New York would make it five in a row and tie them in the standings with the fading Cowboys. Famed for struggling in December, Tony Romo has been unable to keep up his stellar early season pace which is worrying for Jerry Jones' boys. However the porous Giants defense should be a helpful tonic for Romo, Dez Bryant and co, who have the potential to score heavily in the Meadowlands. Eli Manning is in the midst of his worst professional season and while Dallas don't have a great defense they have at times shut down teams this season. They're unlikely to keep New York completely in check, but that shouldn't matter if the Giants defense holds true to form. Dallas to win, and move into a first place tie with Philly as a result. Cowboys 34, Giants 21

Denver @ New England

Sunday Night Football pits two old enemies, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, against each other at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots know they'll need to bounce back quickly from last weeks controversial loss at Carolin if they're to secure a bye in the first round of the play-offs, which is easier said than done against probably the leagues elite team. Manning was able to throw from a clean pocket last week against KC and if he can do the same this week then I'd strongly expect the Broncos to win and move to 10-1. Wes Welker has been cleared to play following his concussion, adding even more spice to this game as he comes up against his former team. If the Patriots are forced to play catchup, which I think they will, the Von Miller led Denver pass rush will be licking their lips at the prospect of flying off the ball towards Tom terrific in the New England pocket. The Pats may be able to keep up for a while, even deep into the game, but I can't see them overhauling the juggernaut Broncos tonight. I'm predicting a big win for Denver, sending the Patriots to their second consecutive defeat. Broncos 34, Patriots 28

San Fransisco @ Washington

In the battle of struggling dual threat quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick takes the 49ers into FedEx field to take on Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. However though both teams are struggling on offense the 49ers defense gives San Fran a significant advantage, as the likes of Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis should combine to shut down Alfred Morris and the Redskins running game. Washington were shut out for three quarters in Philly last week and following this tough fixture they could well find themselves cut adrift at the foot of the NFC east. One last point: RG III's teammates seem to be getting fed up of the sophomore's attitude, so keep your eyes on the sideline during this one especially if Washington once more find themselves struggling to score points. 49ers 27, Redskins 21

So those are my picks, let me know what you think in the comments or on twitter @fredjstanley. It's an Eagles bye week so I'll be able to pay more attention to some of the other games this evening, although the New York-Dallas game will be my main focus due to it's relevance to the birds in the NFC east standings.

 

Quarterback Draft Class Retrospective: 1999

Donovan McNabb enjoyed a successful NFL career unlike some of the other quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 1999 NFL draft

Following on from my earlier post featuring the 1998 draft class which produced some notable quarterbacks (hello Peyton Manning) and some more obscure signal callers here is my review of the following years class in 1999. The last draft before the turn of the century included five first round selections at the position, including the first three picks of the draft, and in total 13 quarterbacks were selected that year. For more information on each individual player and to find out how they fared during their NFL careers keep it right here.

Tim Couch, 1st round (1st overall selection), Cleveland Browns

Unfortunately for the Browns and Couch this pick never worked out as the University of Kentucky star was drafted first overall by the expansion Cleveland franchise. Although he was pressed into action in just his second week in the league Couch never truly settled in as an above average quarterback, and it could justifiably be reasoned that his selection has haunted the Browns ever since. The former All-American passer lasted just five seasons in Cleveland and following his release in 2004 despite a number of try-outs he never again made it onto a regular season NFL roster, a staggering fall for someone with such high pedigree. Couch registered underwhelming yet consistent statistics during his stint with the Browns, with a career completion percentage of 59.8 and passer rating of 75.1 well below the expectations set for someone drafted so high. Couch threw more touchdowns than interceptions over the course of a season just twice in his career, in his rookie year (15 TDs/13 INTs) and his final season in the NFL (7/6). To add insult to injury Couch also received a six game drug related ban from the league in 2006 - when he wasn't even registered to a team.

Donovan McNabb, 1st round (2nd overall selection), Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid struck gold with McNabb, who would go on to break almost every single Eagles passing record before he left the team in 2010. Although he never won a title the Syracuse product led Philly to four NFC championship games and one Superbowl appearance. A dual threat at the position, McNabb was a throwback for Eagles fans to the days of Randall Cunningham and earlier this year his number 5 was retired by the franchise. One of McNabb's most impressive feats was becoming the first QB in league history to throw more than 30 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions in a single season, which he accomplished during the teams run to Superbowl XXXIX in 2004. Less successful stints with Washington and Minnesota followed after his time with Philadelphia came to an end, but they remain just a small stain on a decorated career.

Akili Smith, 1st round (3rd overall selection), Cincinnati Bengals

Much like Couch, Smith wound up becoming a monumental bust for the Bengals and by missing on a QB with such a high draft choice the move set the team back years in their development. In hindsight Smith was a risky selection for Cincinnati due to the fact he'd had just one productive year at college, his senior season at Oregon where he won Pac-12 player of the year honours. Smith started just 17 games during his four years in the NFL, all with the Bengals, and his final passer rating of just 52.8 best exemplifies just how bad he was. While neither Couch or Smith inhabited ideal situations for a young quarterback they clearly had major flaws that weren't picked up during the draft process. Still, it would have been interesting to see if McNabb could have succeeded where Couch and Smith failed, and vice versa.

Daunte Culpepper, 1st round (11th overall selection), Minnesota Vikings

Culpepper's NFL career far more closely resembled McNabb's than either Smith or Couch's, yet he still didn't quite his the heights that #5 did in terms of wins and play-off success. One of Culpepper's main attributes was his outstanding size. During his playing days he stood 6 foot 4 inches tall (he probably still does) and weighed in at 255 pounds (he probably still doesn't). He also possessed good speed for a quarterback, enabling him to rush for 2,652 yards and 34 touchdowns during his career. His overall passer rating of 87.8 actually ranks 14th all-time in the NFL, although having played in an era where passing is easier than ever before that record loses some of its luster, not to mention the fact that he had Randy Moss to throw to while playing for the Vikings. However his accomplishments are still impressive, and in 2004 he set an NFL season yardage record for a quarterback (passing and rushing) although that record has since been broken. Following an acrimonious end to his time with the Vikings Culpepper suffered several severe knee injuries and struggled during stints with Miami and Oakland amongst others, resulting in a sad end to a career which contained an almighty peak and a couple of play-off appearances.

Cade McNown, 1st round (12th overall selection), Chicago Bears

McNown had a miserable NFL career, playing in just two seasons for the Bears before he was traded to Miami and later San Francisco before retiring. In 15 starts he threw 19 interceptions and just 16 touchdowns with a mediocre 67.7 passer rating. Of the top 12 selections in the 1999 draft eight would play in the Pro Bowl during their career; Couch, Smith, McNown and linebacker Chris Claiborne were the only four who didn't.

Shaun King, 2nd round (50th overall selection), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The one thing King has which the five men drafted ahead of him don't is a Superbowl ring, earned while playing for Tampa Bay in 2002 (although King himself didn't suit up for the game). He enjoyed mild success during his time with Tampa, starting all 16 games in 2000 and recording a respectable 75.8 passer rating while throwing 18 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. However he would start just three games over the remainder of his career, including two for Arizona in 2004 - his last season in the NFL.

Brock Huard, 3rd round (77th overall selection), Seattle Seahawks

Probably less famous than his brother Damon, Brock Huard never really made much of an impact in the NFL. Huard saw action in parts of three NFL seasons including four starts (all in 2000), with his four year spell in Seattle briefly interrupted by a two year stint with the Colts. His final stats actually read quite well; four touchdowns, two interceptions and a QB rating of 80.3. However he saw such limited playing time that those stats can be mostly rendered meaningless.

Joe Germaine, 4th round (101st overall selection), St. Louis Rams

I'll admit I'd never heard of Germaine until I started researching this article, and the most interesting thing I learned about him is that he took two years out of college to complete a Mormon mission. His NFL career was slightly less interesting, although he did pick up a Superbowl ring as Kurt Warner's back-up on the victorious Rams team in 1999. Germaine only ever threw 16 passes in the NFL, all in his rookie season, completing 9 of them including a solitary touchdown. He did however also throw two picks that season. Germaine also served time with the Chiefs and Bengals before he was out of the NFL by the start of the 2003 season, before going on to enjoy a productive career in Arena League Football.

Aaron Brooks, 4th round (131st overall selection), Green Bay Packers

Although Brooks never played a down for the Packers, he was stuck behind both Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck on the depth chart, he enjoyed a successful NFL career largely thanks to a six year stint with New Orleans. During his time in the big easy Brooks set several franchise marks including career and single season touchdown passing records (both since broken by Drew Brees). Unfortunately for Brooks and the Saints his only play-off win came in his first season with the team, against the then defending Superbowl champion Rams. A short lived spell in Oakland followed his release from the Saints in 2005, but all told for a late fourth round pick Brooks delivered fantastic value considering some of the busts further up this list and a career passer rating of 78.5 represents a very respectable career.

Kevin Daft, 5th round (151st overall selection), Tennessee Titans

Kevin, who it should be said has a frankly ridiculous or some might Daft name (sorry), failed to make an impact upon the NFL and bounced around several practice squads including Tennessee, San Diego, San Francisco, Atlanta and eventually Tennessee once more. He did however set an NFL Europe record by throwing for 30 touchdowns in the 2002 season. Taken just 20 spots after Brooks, Daft's career is more representative of the kind of career you expect from a quarterback taken so late on in the draft process.

Michael Bishop, 7th round (227th overall selection), New England Patriots

Did you know actor Jamie Foxx is Bishop's cousin? Thank me later for that. Bishop actually had a very distinguished college career with Kansas State, breaking several school records and earning All-American recognition. However his time in the NFL with New England was short lived and after two seasons spent backing up Drew Bledsoe he was released. Bishop was able to become a success in both Arena League Football and the Canadian Football League following his brief NFL career, which in the grand scheme of things means he's been successful in every phase of his football life with the exception of the NFL, better than most seventh round picks manage.

Chris Greisen, 7th round (239th overall selection), Arizona Cardinals

Greisen's career has followed a fascinating path, beginning with a three year term as the Cardinals third string QB. Appearing in just five games Greisen threw just 16 passes, including one touchdown, during his original stint in the NFL. After he was released he became one of the stars of Arena League Football, a common career path for quarterbacks from this draft class it would seem, where he was voted AFL offensive player of the year in both 2007 and 2010. Greisen also set since-broken AFL records for single season passing yards and touchdown passes. Despite having been out of the NFL since 2001 Greisen was amazingly picked up by the Dallas Cowboys nine years later in 2010, spending a week on the active roster before being released. After once again going back to the AFL Greisen was signed again by the Cowboys in 2011, this time to their practice squad, before being released last year. With his NFL career now seemingly over Griesen is a great example of persistence, and the fact that he was on an NFL roster as recently as three years ago when the likes of Couch and Smith were long gone from the league is a testament to his work ethic and determination.

Scott Covington, 7th round (245th overall selection), Cincinnati Bengals

Covington was the second quarterback taken in this draft by the Bengals, and I'm pretty sure the Bengals didn't envision him lasting longer in the NFL than first-rounder Akili Smith. However Covington himself didn't pull up any trees in the pro's and unlike some of the other late round selections on this list he failed to make a career for himself after his release in the CFL, AFL or any other-FL's.


Notable undrafted free-agent quarterbacks: Anthony Wright

So there you have it, an in depth look at the 1999 quarterback draft class featuring a fair few busts but also a couple of late round gems and a borderline hall-of-famer in McNabb. I'll be back later in the week with a new episode of the American Football Focus podcast, but you can let me know what you think of the class of '99 before then by leaving a comment or tweeting me @fredjstanley.
    

Week 11 NFL Predictions

Copyright Yahoo Sports

This evening sees another round of NFL games, including the big showdown between AFC west rivals Denver and Kansas City in the Sunday Night Football slot. With plenty of other exciting match-ups it promises to be yet another great evening of football, and hopefully I'll be on the mark with one or two of my picks. Both myself and Scott Taylor correctly predicted an Indianapolis win over Tennessee on Thursday during this weeks podcast which you can still listen to here. Once your done listening to that fine piece of broadcasting carry on reading to find out what I think will take place across the NFL later on today.

New York Jets @ Buffalo

Do you trust the Jets to beat a team they should beat? Do you trust the Bills to actually play well enough to win against a superior team? I'm not sure I trust either quite frankly, and the game has the potential to be a real defensive struggle with the first two quarterbacks taken in the 2013 draft squaring off against eachother.  If that does turn out to be the case then despite the fact that Mario Williams has been on a tear this season the Jets unit as a whole is stronger, and that should lead them to 6-4 and keep them firmly in the hunt for a play-off spot. Jets 17, Bills 13

Baltimore @ Chicago

Josh McCown looks set to deputise for the injured Jay Cutler for Chicago as the Bears welcome a rejuvenated Baltimore outfit to Soldier Field.  McCown's life will be made easier by being able to hand the ball off to Matt Forte, and with Brandon Marshall out wide he's also got a go-to receiver in the passing game. The Ravens survived an scare against Cincinnati in week 10, where having allowed a hail-mary touchdown pass to A.J Green as time expired they triumphed in overtime. However with a defense that's a shadow of its former self they'll have a tough time stopping the Bears putting up the amount of points required to win this game; which won't be very many judging by the Ravens offensive showings this year. Ravens 20, Bears 27

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Usually this game is a basement battle in the AFC north, but that isn't quite the case this year. Both teams are in with a shout of winning the division, particularly the 6-4 Bengals, and the home side should quite comfortably hold serve against the rival Browns despite their recent wobble. It could be close, but I just don't see a way Cincinnati lets this one slip through their grasp. Browns 21, Bengals 28

Oakland @ Houston

If you tune into an NFL game tonight in the hope of watching stellar play at the quarterback position, avoid this one. Maybe I'm being a bit harsh on Case Keenum who's shown flashes of the ability needed to be a starting NFL QB, but Raiders starter Matt McGloin has no place on a professional football field. But on the field he will be thanks to Terrell Pryor's knee ailment, and that fact alone should help Texans coach Gary Kubiak pick up the W on his return to the sidelines following his mini stroke. Raiders 10, Texans 24

Arizona @ Jacksonville

I failed to pick the Jags last week against better judgement and it came back to bite me, but I'm going to make the same mistake this week and go with the piping hot Cardinals. All of a sudden Arizona are just a game behind San Francisco in the NFC west and thanks in large part to some excellent defensive showings they have a real chance of catching the 49ers. Patrick Peterson and Calais Campbell  are true difference makers on that side of the ball, and they should have no trouble keeping Jacksonville in check as Carson Palmer leads the offense to enough points to secure this one quite comfortably. Cardinals 27, Jaguars 13

Washington @ Philadelphia

Tied for the division lead, Philadelphia looks to break a breathtaking 10 game (!) home losing streak against the Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field. On paper everything points to that happening; an explosive offense, improving defense and momentum all combine to make Philly strong favourites. However they'll have to beware the Redskins running game, as they have the ability to control the clock with Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris moving the rock. Should the Eagles jump out to an early lead that shouldn't matter, and I think they will. So I think they'll win. I think (hope) I'll be right. Redskins 24, Eagles 34

Detroit @ Pittsburgh

Two working class cities go head to head as the motor and steel industries collide. Well, they may have collided if both hadn't gone bust (or nearly bust). The Lions are coming off a vital road win in Chicago last week and have sole possession of first place in the NFC north, something they should have no difficulty retaining against the woeful Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger could be in for a long day behind a leaky offensive line and I wouldn't have begrudged him a few nightmares about Nick Fairley as he tried to get some sleep last night. Lions 30, Steelers 17

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

One massive disappointment meets another in west Florida this week, but the Buccaneers have a little momentum on their side thanks to capturing their first win of the season against Miami last week. The Falcons have been besieged with injuries during this campaign and having already lost Julio Jones and Roddy White they could be without future hall of fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, who's battling a toe injury. With or without him they will probably struggle to score, which leads me to believe that the Bucs will make it two in a row. You wait all season for a win to come along.. Falcons 18, Buccaneers 21

San Diego @ Miami

With Miami engulfed in scandal San Diego have lucked it with the timing of their visit to south beach. The Chargers put up a good fight against Denver a week ago and with one of the stronger defensive units in the league it's difficult to see them being upset by the Dolphins, who in the absence of Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito have one of the most porous offensive lines in the league. Expect Phillip Rivers and co to get the win and move back to .500. Chargers 27, Dolphins 21

San Francisco @ New Orleans

In one of the games of the week (alongside the Chiefs-Broncos extravaganza and Carolina-New England) the 49ers will attempt to repeat last seasons feat of winning in the hostile Superdome. However that's easier said than done, and after a string of unimpressive offensive showings the niners will have their work cut out scoring on Rob Ryan's D. With Drew Brees almost a certainty to lead the Saints to over 20 points Colin Kaepernick will have to party like it's 2012 if San Francisco are to win this one and keep within touching distance of Seattle in the NFC west. I'm not sure Kaepernick's got that in his at this stage; especially not in the Saints house. 49ers 17, Saints 28

Green Bay @ New York Giants

Scott Tolzien will start at QB for the Packers in the meadowlands, but fortunately for Tolzien and his team the Giants will also start a third stringer in Eli Manning. The Giants are fighting for their lives and in their defense have shown signs of life after a horrific start to the season, winning three on the spin after an 0-6 start. The Packers are also in dire need of a win after being handled by the Eagles last Sunday, but with Clay Matthews not at 100% I can't see their defense picking them up and earning a crucial road win. Giants by default. Packers 14, Giants 20

Minnesota @ Seattle

The Vikings head into the northwest with little to no chance of walking away victorious. Seattle remain the NFCs elite team and they should take care of business here easily. Aside from Percy Harvin making his season debut there's not much to see here, so move along. Vikings 14, Seahawks 27

Kansas City @ Denver

Sunday Night Football sees the unbeaten Chiefs head to the thin Denver air to tackle the 8-1 Broncos. It's a classic match-up of offense versus defense, with the best D in the NFL (KC) taking on the best offense (Denver). Peyton Manning has a dodgy ankle which could limit his mobility in the pocket when trying to escape the Chiefs vaunted pass rush led by Tamba Hali, and Andy Reid has an incredible record after the bye week. However as much as Manning may or may not struggle the Denver defense will fancy its chances of keeping the Alex Smith led Chiefs offense in check, and an amped up crowd should witness the Broncos even the standings in the division ahead of the rematch in two weeks. Chiefs 17, Broncos 24

New England @ Carolina

A few weeks ago it looked extremely unlikely that the Panthers would have a realistic chance of catching the Saints in the NFC south, but should New Orleans lose to the 49ers and the Panthers win here the two would be neck and neck. Cam Newton has been playing well but the real story in Carolina is a rock solid defensive unit led by Luke Kuechly. The New England offense isn't an explosive unit and as a result the Patriots could come unstuck here, unless they themselves can stiffle the Panthers attack. I never thought I'd say this, but I have more confidence in Cam Newton making the plays to win this game than I do Tom Brady, so I'm going for a landmark Panthers victory. Patriots 20, Panthers 23

Those are my picks for the week, let me know what you think in the comments of tweet me @fredjstanley. Enjoy this evenings games, and if you can afford a lie in tomorrow make sure you stay up for Sunday Night Football. I'll be back later in the week with the American Football Focus podcast, so until then..

 

American Football Focus Podcast #5 13/11/13

#Eli-te

This weeks episode of the American Football Focus is up, featuring myself and Scott Taylor. We recap some of the action from week 10, give awards for the season so far and offer predictions for the rest of the 2013 season, in addition to running the down the latest news from around the league. The podcast can be heard here, and includes a fair amount of Eli Manning bashing. Enjoy!

Martin, Incognito Situation A Sad State of Affairs for All Involved

Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin is under increasing pressure

When Jonathan Martin stormed out of the Miami Dolphins team cafeteria after his teammates pulled another practical joke on him, a much larger and more sinister situation revealed itself. Centering around Martin and his fellow offensive lineman Richie Incognito, Martin accused Incognito of threatening not just him but also members of his family in addition to using racial slurs in a since disclosed voice-mail message. However Incognito has since defended his role in the incident, accusing Martin of making similar remarks himself in jest and that his comments, particularly the death threats, had been taken out of context. While Incognito has admitted he shouldn't have used the N word many Miami players including quarterback Ryan Tannehill and wide receiver Brian Hartline have defended him publicly in recent days.

What you can probably gather from those facts is that the situation is anything but clear. The team suspended Incognito nine days ago and have until December 2 to decide whether to reinstate or release him, but it would seem extremely unlikely that they could do the former without clearing his name. Doing that would involve essentially dismissing Martin's accusations; something which is impossible to do based on the evidence presented in the case thus far. Perhaps the most disturbing element of the story is the rumour that Dolphins coaches asked Incognito to try and toughen Martin up, as reported in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. If true then second year coach Joe Philbin could find his days as head coach in Miami numbered, with comparisons to the "Bounty gate" scandal in New Orleans justified. However while Sean Peyton was suspended for a season his track record, primarily a Superbowl win, granted him enough goodwill within the Saints organisation to return upon the conclusion of his one year suspension. In contrast Philbin has done little to inspire confidence in his coaching ability during his two years at the helm and after an off-season free agent spending spree a 4-5 record won't be enough to appease the Miami faithful.

Dolphins owner Stephen Ross broke his silence on the topic yesterday before Miami's loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, acknowledging that "there's been so much said and done to date that I don't think anybody really knows what has happened because no one has really spoken with Jonathan Martin directly". Ross also revealed that he had commissioned the creation of the 'Miami Dolphins committee', consisting of former players including Curtis Martin and Jason Taylor and ex-NFL coaches Don Shula and Tony Dungy.

Because no one has been in contact with Martin his side of the story remains untold, which combined with the support from his teammates for Incognito makes it important that he speaks out soon. One thing that is clear is that the mood within that locker room, rightly or wrongly, is that Incognito would be welcomed back with open arms. Martin has been portrayed as an outsider who made little to no effort to fit in with his colleagues, in the process isolating himself and presenting the opportunity for jokes or 'hazing' from his teammates to be misconstrued by both parties. With Philbin's seat getting increasingly warm and Ross trying desperately to limit the damage caused to the reputation of his franchise it hasn't just been the players involved in the saga who have been effected. But affected they have been, and not in a positive way. Last nights loss to Tampa Bay was an early indication that the situation has infiltrated the psyche of every player on the roster, with Martin and Incognito conspicuous in their absence. Stephen Ross's statement yesterday looked to be a step in the right direction, but it's actions and not words which will help Ross and the franchise turn the situation around and stop the metaphorical bleeding.

Week 10 NFL Predictions

"Who downloaded All-Saints onto my iPod?"

I'm back with my picks for tonight's NFL games having already missed the target on Thursday nights Redskins - Vikings match-up. Hopefully I'll have better luck this evening, but with some evenly matched teams taking each other on there could a few close scores. I'm still working on an article regarding the Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin scandal, but with fresh news on the story breaking daily I'm holding fire until the details become a little less murky. Back to football, though, and here are my slightly less than expert predictions.

Seattle @ Atlanta

Sitting pretty at 8-1 the Seahawks are heavy favourites as they take on the underwhelming Falcons, whose season for all intents and purposes was ended when they were routed by Carolina last week. Even though Seattle aren't quite as dominant away from home they should be able to take care of business, with the Falcons offense minus Roddy White and Julio Jones likely to struggle putting up points against the NFC's top defense. Seahawks 24, Falcons 17

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Like Atlanta, Baltimore has played well below expectations in 2013. However while the Ravens demise on defense could have been foreseen having lost stalwarts such as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed the offensive struggles have come as a surprise with the Ray Rice led running game especially disappointing. The Bengals look to be the class of a weak AFC north, and they should reassert their authority in the division here although this could be a tricky road test. Having been upset in Miami, losing on a walk-off safety, it's a test they'll have to pass if they want to convince people they're a team to be feared in January. Bengals 31, Ravens 21

Detroit @ Chicago

Aaron Rodgers broken collarbone immediately opened things up in the NFC north, and both the Lions and Bears have a chance to put some daylight between them and the Packers while one of the leagues top quarterbacks is on the treatment table. Jay Cutler is back for Chicago, whose win over Green Bay in the "Back-Up QB" bowl was mightily impressive. Chicago have the ability on defense to quieten the explosive Detroit offense, and that could be the difference at Soldier Field. Lions 24, Bears 30

Philadelphia @ Green Bay

Want to know the value of having a good reserve at quarterback? Watch this game, and observe the difference in quality between Nick Foles, who tied the NFL record by throwing seven touchdown passes last week, and Seneca Wallace. Wallace has good mobility but I'm afraid that's not quite enough to get it done in the pass happy NFL and despite the Packers having a multitude of weapons at wide receiver and running back they should struggle to score on a vastly improved Philly D. Very rarely are the Packers underdogs at Lambeau Field, but sans #12 it certainly would be a surprise (to me at least) if they could pull of the upset here. Expect Philly to keep Dallas looking over their shoulder. Eagles 28, Packers 20

St. Louis @ Indianapolis

As bad as Seneca Wallace is, the Rams might actually have a worse understudy signal caller in Kellen Clemens. The Colts have had a fantastic season thus far and they shouldn't be unduly troubled here. Andrew Luck led yet another fourth quarter comeback last week in Houston, but he shouldn't have to produce those sort of heroics in what will likely be a one sided game as the Colts continue their march towards the AFC south division title. Rams 17, Colts 30

Oakland @ New York Giants

Coming off a bye last week New York will be aware that the NFC east is still up for grabs even though all three teams won in week nine. However following the Redskins surprise loss against the Vikings there will be renewed optimism in the Giants camp, and they couldn't have asked for a better opponent to face coming out of the bye than the stumbling Raiders, who allowed 49 points to the Eagles last Sunday. I don't necessarily think the Giants are a good team, but at home with a real incentive they should manage to scrape past Oakland. Raiders 18, Giants 21

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh

Bills QB E.J Manuel returns just in time to face the porous Steelers defence (didn't think I'd be writing that sentence) in a battle between two struggling east coast teams. Both sit bottom of their respective divisions and are heavily flawed, but the key battle could come between the astonishingly poor Pittsburgh offensive line and the Bills pass rush led by former first overall pick Mario Williams. I expect the Bills to come out on top in that department, and as a result I'm stumping for them in a close encounter. Bills 27, Steelers 26

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Will the Jaguars ever win another game? It doesn't look like it right now, but the Titans represent a window of opportunity for coach Gus Bradley to earn his first NFL win. Yet as much as I love an underdog I still can't see a road win here, and following a solid win against St. Louis last week the Titans led by running back Chris Johnson should move to 5-4, and in the process keep their slim play-off hopes alive. Jaguars 14, Titans 24

Carolina @ San Francisco

A mouth watering tie, the Panthers recent good performances have placed them just a game back of New Orleans in the NFC south while the niners sit a game and a half behind Seattle in the west. Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton are both from the new breed of quarterback, meaning both defenses, each one excellent, will have to account for their dual threat abilities. While San Fran are favourites I have a sneaky feeling that the Luke Kuechly led Panthers D will be able to shut down the 49ers read option attack in the same way Seattle did early on in the season. Road win. Panthers 28, 49ers 17

Houston @ Arizona

Case Keenum has impressed in his two starts for the Texans and deserved to pick up his first win against the Colts on Sunday night. However the Houston defenses inability to stop Andrew Luck leading a comeback dashed that notion, so this weekends trip to the desert represents another chance for the formerly undrafted rookie to get in the win column. Wade Phillips takes charge of Houston with Gary Kubiak recovering from collapsing during that ill-fated game against Indy, and I'm predicting the Texans will rally in the absence of their leader, as those same Colts did in similar circumstances last year. Texans 24, Cardinals 21

Denver @ San Diego

Another team who were on a bye last week, the Broncos rest may have come at a good time as they face the Chargers tonight before facing Kansas City twice and New England in the next three weeks. San Diego have really fallen off after a promising start despite the stellar play of Phillip Rivers, a run of form that is unlikely to be reversed in this one. Sadly for Chargers fans even if Rivers and co can lay 30 points on Denver and interim head coach Jack Del Rio it probably won't be enough. Broncos 35, Chargers 24

Dallas @ New Orleans

Two teams who currently occupy play-off spots square off in the big easy, but after scrapping a win against Minnesota last week it'll prove anything but easy for Dallas to pick up a road win tonight. The Saints were also below par last week as they were upset in New York by the Jets. However with one of the best home field advantages in football they should be capable of bouncing back with a win here, condemning Dallas to a 5-5 record. Cowboys 30, Saints 33

Miami @ Tampa Bay

What I really want to know is, who decided this game was worthy of a prime time audience? The Bucs are yet to win a game while the Dolphins are a picture of mediocrity at 4-4. Engulfed in the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin scandal it'll be difficult for Miami to focus on football, and playing at home the Buccaneers should be motivated enough to win behind Mike Glennon's arm, even with running back Doug Martin heading to injured reserve. Dolphins 14, Buccaneers 21

So there you are, take my picks as you will and let me know if you agree or disagree in the comments or on twitter @fredjstanley. Stay tuned for my article on the Miami Dolphins rookie hazing saga along with the weekly AFF podcast.

Teams on bye weeks: Patriots, Jets, Browns, Chiefs

American Football Focus Podcast 07/11/13

"All by myself, don't wanna be.."

The fourth installment of the American Football Focus podcast is out, and you can listen to it here. In it I cover a range of topics, including Aaron Rodgers injury, Nick Foles historic performance against Oakland and the rookie hazing scandal involving the Dolphins Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin. You can have your say in the comments, on twitter (@fredjstanley) and don't forget to vote in the AFF poll. I'll be back later on with a more detailed article about the rookie hazing episode.

Justin Blackmon Suspended; Week Nine NFL Picks

Copyright Sportsline

The biggest news out of the NFL over the past couple of days has been the indefinite suspension handed out by league to Jacksonville's promising wide receiver Justin Blackmon for violating the NFLs substance abuse policy for a third time. Blackmon had shown flashes this season of being a top player at his position, so from a playing stand point the Jaguars have lost someone who is probably their most talented player. More importantly Blackmon, the Jacksonville organisation and the NFL need to find a way to keep the wide receiver clean or his bright future will evaporate quicker than the Jaguars chances of a winning season. The problem is clearly a deep rooted one judging by the fact Blackmon has now tested positive three times, and the earliest he can return to action is next season if he applies for reinstatement during the summer and, of course, doesn't fail any more drugs tests. Hopefully the youngster, last years fifth overall pick in the draft, can sort himself out before he blows (poor choice of words?) the opportunity of a lifetime. Moving on, here are my picks for week nine of the NFL season:

Kansas City @ Buffalo

The Chiefs head to Buffalo in a potential trap game before their showdown with Denver in week ten. However New Orleans showed last week that the Bills are indeed very beatable, and Kansas City should be able to stifle the Bills offense considering they have the AFCs best defensive unit. Cleveland nearly shocked Andy Reid's men last week, and combined with the fact that these two teams are just a yard apart in overall offense per game I was tempted to pick the upset. But you can't pick a 3-5 team against someone who's undefeated.. can you? Chiefs 24, Bills 17

Atlanta @ Carolina

The Falcons season continues to sink to new depths, and last weeks embarrassing defeat to Arizona was surely their lowest moment in what has been a desperately poor campaign. Meanwhile the Panthers are looking like potential play-off material, with Cam Newton showing off a new found maturity while Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly have led an impressive defensive unit. Before the season you'd have been laughed out of the room for suggesting the Falcons would be 2-6 at the midpoint, yet that is exactly where they'll be should the Panthers live up to their favourites tag tonight. Falcons 21, Panthers 31

Minnesota @ Dallas

Christian Ponder remains the starter under centre for the Vikings despite Josh Freeman being cleared to play following his concussion two weeks ago against the Giants. However it's unlikely to make much of a difference in this one, where the Cowboys are heavy favourites. Tony Romo is having one of his better seasons and despite the Vikings holding onto Jared Allen at the trade deadline the remainder of the Minnesota D is average at best, which should result in plenty of points for the 'boys. The Dallas defense is hardly better than their Vikings counterparts, but unless Adrian Peterson can score 30 points on his own it's unlikely to matter too much. Vikings 14, Cowboys 34

New Orleans @ New York Jets

The Jets beat the Patriots, who in turn beat New Orleans, which would figure to make New York the pick here. However it's not as simple as that, and as anyone whose been following the Jets progress this season will tell you they're just not a very good team - particularly on offense. Geno Smith has been up and down (mainly down) which is understandable for a rookie quarterback in a dysfunctional offense, while Drew Brees has excelled after being reunited with Sean Peyton. If this was being played in the Superdome it would be a blowout. Fortunately for New York it's not, though the end result will still be the same. Road win. Saints 28, Jets 20

Tennessee @ St. Louis

Two teams whose seasons have been blighted by injuries at the QB position square off in what promises to be a tight, if not high quality match-up. Kellen Clemens nearly steered the Rams to an unlikely victory last week against Seattle but although he couldn't finish the job he did inspire hope that there is life after Sam Bradford this season. However the Titans have more to play for at this point of the year, mainly due to the fact the AFC south isn't as strong as the NFC west, and that additional incentive could be enough to earn them a road win and see them move to .500 at the halfway stage of the season. Titans 27, Rams 24

San Diego @ Washington

Following their 'Jacksonville bye' last week, the Chargers are 4-3 and in position to mount a run at the second wild card spot in the AFC. Washington are also still in the hunt for the post-season thanks to a combination of their gutsy win over Chicago two weeks ago and the NFC east's futility. Robert Griffin III looked good in that shootout and his mobility is near enough back to where it was before his knee injury. However the fact that the Washington D gave up 42 points in that Chicago game and 45 last week to the Broncos is extremely worrying, and gives the Chargers and Phillip Rivers the advantage heading into this game. Chargers 35, Redskins 31

Philadelphia @ Oakland

The falling Eagles welcome back Nick Foles at quarterback, in the process mercifully relegating Matt Barkley to the bench. Foles himself struggled the last time he played, against Dallas, but the Raiders defense hasn't been performing brilliantly and offer Foles the opportunity to quieten his critics. The Philly D has been slowly improving in recent weeks but they'll have to contend with the dynamic dual threat QB Terrell Pryor, who last week set an NFL record for the longest touchdown run by a quarterback with a 93-yard scramble. I picked the Eagles last week against the awful Giants and they let me down - I won't make the same mistake this time. Eagles 20, Raiders 27

Tampa Bay @ Seattle

In one of the real mismatches of week nine, the hapless Buccaneers travel to Seattle to face one of the NFL's truly elite teams. Tampa Bay are yet to win a game and they look set to fall to 0-8, while the Seahawks should strengthen their grip on the NFC west and move to 8-1. These two teams couldn't be farther apart in terms of talent, and it could get ugly for under-fire Bucs coach Greg Schiano. Buccaneers 10, Seahawks 28

Baltimore @ Cleveland

The current Browns face the former Browns in Cleveland with both teams seasons hanging by a thread. Baltimore has missed the likes of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis who departed following their Superbowl victory in February, while the Browns never had that many talented players to lose. Ever since Brian Hoyer got injured Cleveland have struggled to make any impact on offense, and although the Baltimore D isn't what it once was it still should have enough about it to give Joe Flacco every chance of outscoring Jason Cambell. Ravens 21, Browns 14

Pittsburgh @ New England

Once upon a time this was an AFC championship game fixture, but thanks to the Steelers malaise in 2013 the Patriots should be capable of winning their seventh game so far this season. Pittsburgh had shown signs of life until they were handled in Oakland last Sunday, but their astonishingly poor offensive line play has hindered both their passing and running game. Tom Brady hasn't had one of his best seasons but he's still just about getting it done, and that's all he'll have to do this evening to consign Mike Tomlin's men to a second successive road loss. Steelers 17, Patriots 24

Indianapolis @ Houston

Sunday night football sees Case Keenum and the Texans attempt to upset the Colts in Reliant Stadium, a tough task for any quarterback let alone someone making just their second career start. Andrew Luck is maturing into an elite talent at that position and despite the Texans defense possessing the talented J.J Watt they'll struggle to fill the void left by the injured Brian Cushing. While I think Keenum showed poise and potential in his first start he's facing an uphill battle to earn his first win against the AFC south's top team. Colts 28, Texans 17

Chicago @ Green Bay

Without Jay Cutler the difficult may have become impossible for the Bears, who visit what's sure to be a hostile Lambeau Field on Monday night. Aaron Rodgers continues to cement his status alongside Peyton Manning as on of the leagues top two passers, and even without injured tight end Jermichael Finley he has plenty of weapons who he can target. A Chicago win would make things a lot more tight in the NFC north; unfortunately for Bears fans I can't see them pulling off the primetime upset. Bears 16, Packers 34

There are my predictions for week nine, let me know what you think in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley. Happy football day!

Bye week teams: Cardinals, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, Giants, 49ers