American Football Focus Podcast 30/12/13

There's always next year, Jerry

This weeks episode of the American Football Focus podcast is up over at Mixcloud and you can listen to it here. I'm joined by Scott Taylor and Alex Mohammed and the three of us discuss a range of topics, including head coach firings and some of the action from the regular season finales that took place yesterday. We also give our picks for the four games taking place in the first round of the play-offs next weekend and hand out awards for the regular season including MVP, defensive player, coach, goat and moment of the year.

Let us know what you think in the comments or on Twitter (@am24, @sstaylor13, @fredjstanley).

Week 17 NFL Predictions

Guess who's back..

Almost as quickly as it began the end of the NFL regular season is nearly upon us. Just one more round of games remain tonight as teams jockey for a spot in the play-offs or sleepwalk through the last week of a lost season. Coaches of many teams that fill the latter category are in danger of being fired come tomorrow as owners and general managers come to the conclusion that the buck stops with the man calling the plays. Keep reading to find out what I think will happen in this final act of the 2013 season.

Carolina @ Atlanta

The Panthers head to their division rivals knowing a win wraps up a play-off bye and the number two seed in the conference after they were able to beat New Orleans last week. Atlanta are pretty much playing out the string at this point although they deserve credit for fighting hard in recent weeks despite their awful record. Expect the vaunted Carolina defense to keep Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense in check, paving the way for Cam Newton to secure the win and the NFC south title for the Panthers. Panthers 24, Falcons 14

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

With the AFC north title already wrapped up the Bengals could be forgiven for taking this game lightly but it's unlikely they will with their fierce rivals in town. The Ravens have to win if they're to back into the play-offs as a wild-card. However in the Bengals jungle the Baltimore D could be in for a rough ride with Andy Dalton throwing bombs to A.J Green and Marvin Jones, one of the best receiver combinations in the NFL. The Ravens secondary isn't what it once was and as a result I'm fearful for their chances of winning here and claiming a play-off spot.
Ravens 21, Bengals 28

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Indy already are assured of a home play-off tie next week so they'll likely rest a few starters after a brief tune up this evening, with Gus Bradley's Jaguars attempting to win just their fifth game of 2013. As much credit as Bradley deserves for coaxing even four wins out of a mediocre crop of players he'd do well to beat the Colts in Indianapolis, who should be able to head into the post-season on the back of a comfortable win - starters or not. Jaguars 16, Colts 28

New York Jets @ Miami

Rumour has it that Rex Ryan will keep his job with the Jets regardless of the season finale in Florida tonight, leaving New York free to play the role of play-off spoiler without being under pressure. The Dolphins stand a good chance of making the play-offs with a win so they'll be going all out, but much like the Ravens I can see them failing to hold up their end of the bargain this weekend. New York under Ryan have been infamously unpredictable so with some added job security and the chance to finish the season on a high note I can see the Jets upsetting Miami on their own field. Even with Geno Smith at quarterback. Jets 24, Dolphins 21

Detroit @ Minnesota

This is the first game on the list that's truly a dead rubber, with both sides already eliminated from play-off contention. Calvin Johnson is likely to miss out for Detroit who could see head coach Jim Schwartz fired at the conclusion of the season after a late season collapse. Despite their poor form of late the Lions still possess far more talent than the Vikings, which leads me to believe they'll wave goodbye to to the Metrodome with a loss. It's also worth noting that Minnesota coach Leslie Frazier is under just as much if not more pressure than Schwartz, so both of these teams could enter 2014 under new leadership. Lions 31, Vikings 17

Washington @ New York Giants

Like the above game this match-up features two teams who've had seasons to forget. Also like the above game both head coaches involved are under significant pressure heading into the off-season. Eli Manning has had his worst season to date and he'll be up against Kirk Cousins, the Redskins back up QB who was handed the keys to the offense upon the shutting down of regular starter RG III. Both of these teams are a shambles but unlike Mike Shannahan Tom Coughlin almost always manages to get his team to fight to the last, a quality which should earn the G-men a hollow victory in the seasons final week. Redskins 20, Giants 24

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

If the Steelers back into the play-offs it would be a monumental achievement given their awful start to the season and the relative lack of talent on the roster. But a win here combined with losses for Miami, Baltimore and San Diego would accomplish just that and I have absolutely no doubts about Pittsburgh's ability to handle the Browns at Heinz Field. Cleveland have tailed off as the season has worn on, with the majority of their playbook now simply reading "throw it to Josh Gordon". As good as Gordon is, and he is very good, the remainder of the offense is poor and the defense will struggle to contain an improving Steelers offense led by Ben Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell. I can't see anything other than a home win here, keeping the impossible dream alive for Mike Tomlin's outfit.
Browns 13, Steelers 27

Houston @ Tennessee

This AFC south battle has about as much meaning as one of my awful puns, i.e not a lot. Penn State coach and former Patriots offensive co-ordinator Bill O'Brien is rumoured to be the favourite to take over in Houston next season so keep an eye out for any sign of him being smuggled into Tennessee to watch the game. Failing that, change the channel and watch a game that involves at least one competent team. As far as the actual game is concerned I'm backing Ryan Fitzpatrick to lead the Titans to an easy win against the team with the worst record in the NFL; your 2013 Houston Texans!
Texans 16, Titans 21

San Fransisco @ Arizona

This game could turn out to be between the NFC's two wild-card teams, however for that scenario to play out the Cardinals will have to beat the 49ers which is no easy task. San Fran's defense is truly elite, as is Arizona's, yet I have serious doubts about Carson Palmer's ability to avoid mistakes and not turn the ball over. A road win over Seattle was truly impressive last weekend and a similar defensive performance is needed if the Cards are to put heat on New Orleans. Colin Kaepernick has been extremely efficient of late and as a result I can see him outperforming Palmer and ending the Cardinals play-off hopes in what promises to be a defensive exhibition.
49ers 17, Cardinals 14

Green Bay @ Chicago

Another fascinating game between two play-off contenders, this winner takes all affair will decide the fate of the NFC north crown. Aaron Rodgers is back from his collarbone injury which changes the entire dynamic of the match-up, and after Chicago were destroyed by the Eagles last week it would be a brave man who'd back the Bears tonight. With Eddie Lacy primed to run rough-shed over the porous Bears run defense I expect Green Bay to put up a fair few points on Chicago and claim an unlikely play-off berth on the hallowed Soldier Field turf. Packers 33, Bears 24

Buffalo @ New England

Bills fans will be satisfied if not overly excited over the teams play under first year head coach Doug Marrone, while New England once more are gearing up for the play-offs with a first round bye as good as guaranteed. While a Denver loss at Oakland coupled with a Patriots win would see Bill Belichick's men secure homefield throughout January that scenario is extremely unlikely, so the post-season implications are minimal. That won't stop New England from tuning up for the play-offs with a convincing win however, as the Bills will find out just how far they are from competing with the team that has set the standard in the AFC east for so long.
Bills 20, Patriots 30

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Apparently Penn State are lining up Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano as Bill O'Brien's replacement if/when he leaves for the NFL. Colour me confused as Schiano has done very little to impress me or anyone else for that matter during his time with the Buccaneers, although he deserves credit for cutting ties with former quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman's replacement Mike Glennon has performed well but he'll have his work cut out for him in the Superdome against the Saints, especially as the hosts know a win is needed to secure the final play-off spot in the NFC. I don't think the Saints will run away with it but it would be a huge surprise to see them slip up with so much on the line in the comforts of home. Buccaneers 21, Saints 27

Denver @ Oakland

Denver are very good. Oakland are very bad. Very, very bad actually. Peyton Manning should add a few more touchdown tosses to his record on the season and he also stands a fantastic chance of breaking Drew Brees single season yardage mark. While the Broncos are set the book homefield advantage throughout the play-offs the Raiders can go ahead and book their tee times for January and beyond. Broncos 42, Raiders 20

Kansas City @ San Diego

Should Miami and Baltimore slip up then the Chargers can sneak into the play-offs with a win here, although that'll be no easy task against the post-season bound Chiefs. Kansas City have gone from a team with a stout defense and stuttering offense to a point scoring, point leaking side in the space of a few short weeks and even though they're locked in as the number five seed in the conference they'll still fight hard against their division rivals. I've gone for Baltimore and Miami defeats this week; I'll complete a clean sweep by gunning for the Chiefs on the road here even if they decide to rest some starters as has been reported. Chiefs 27, Chargers 21

St. Louis @ Seattle

A shock defeat at home to Arizona was the Seahawks first home reversal in nearly two years but make no mistake - Seattle is still the class of the NFC and maybe the entire NFL. St. Louis have performed admirably in the absence of Sam Bradford for the second half of the season and with Washington's first round pick to go along with their own in April they could be a team on the rise heading into 2014. Unfortunately for the Rams it's still 2013, and they still don't have much of a chance with Kellen Clemens squaring off against the best defense in the league. Rams 13, Seahaawks 24

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Dallas are without Tony Romo and Sean Lee for this NFC east championship game, which on paper makes the Eagles very strong favourites indeed. However I'm hesitant to jump to conclusions in such a monumental game for both sides. All statistics point towards a Philly romp yet while I think the birds will pull it out and advance to the play-offs the Cowboys won't go down without a fight.
Eagles 31, Cowboys 24

Those are my picks, let me know what you think on twitter @fredjstanley or leave a comment. Happy New Year!

  

 
 

American Football Focus Podcast - Christmas Special

Panthers QB Cam Newton looks set to star in the play-offs

This weeks American Football Focus podcast is up and it can be found here. Just follow the link to here myself, Scott Taylor and Alex Mohammed discuss a range of topics from around the NFL. There's a review of the weekends games, Peyton Manning talk, a list of head coaches who have found themselves on the hot seat and much more. Feel free to have your say on any of those topics in the comments or you can tweet me @fredjstanley.

Week 16 NFL Predictions

Candlestick Park has been the scene of many famous NFL moments including 'The Catch' and Steve Youngs legendary scramble against Minnesota

With just two weeks of the 2013 NFL season remaining there's still plenty to play for with the majority of teams in the NFL still in the play-off hunt. While the likes of Jacksonville and Atlanta saw their seasons ended many weeks ago there are tight races for a division crown in the NFC north, NFC south, NFC east, AFC west and AFC north. Home-field advantage throughout the play-offs is also undecided in the AFC after both Denver and New England were upset in week 15. Keep on reading to find out what I think will happen next in this most exciting of NFL seasons.

Miami @ Buffalo

The surging Dolphins picked of Tom Brady and the Patriots last week to move to 8-6 and within touching distance of a wild-card spot. Miami's defense is performing admirably and with Thad Lewis slated to start at quarterback for the Bills this Sunday they'll fancy their chances of keeping Buffalo's offense in check. Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson is out with injury which will give Lewis one less option to throw to in the passing game so despite Buffalo picking up a win over Jacksonville last week the smart money is on the streaking Dolphins extending their run of wins to four. Dolphins 27, Bills 16

New Orleans @ Carolina

Essentially an NFC south title game, these two teams both sit at 10-4 with two games remaining this season. Carolina will be looking for revenge after they were beaten by the Saints in the Superdome just two weeks ago and after New Orleans lost last week in St. Louis they'll fancy their chances at home. The Saints are peculiar in that they're almost guaranteed to win at home, while on the road they transform into the 2008 Detroit Lions. Ok so they may not be quite that bad they are 3-4 away from Louisiana and that will give their fans cause for concern if Drew Brees and co lose on Sunday and are forced to go on the road in the wild-card round of the play-offs. Despite their poor road record I'm backing the Saints to buck that recent trend after they hammered Carolina the last time the two teams met a fortnight ago. Nonetheless whatever happens this is a game that you won't want to miss.
Saints 28, Panthers 24

Minnesota @ Cincinnati

These two teams made the headlines last week for contrasting reasons; the Vikings pulled off an upset against the Eagles while Cincinnati blew a chance to move into position for a play-off bye when they lost to Pittsburgh. However despite those results the Bengals are heavy favourites at home against the lowly Vikings, who even after last weeks win are a pitiful 4-9-1 on the season. Flaws in the Minnesota secondary were shown up by Philadelphia when Nick Foles threw for over 300 yards so expect Marvin Jones and A.J Green to have big days on Sunday, in the process putting another nail in Vikings coach Leslie Frazier's coffin. Vikings 21, Bengals 31

Denver @ Houston

Before the season began it wasn't unrealistic to expect these two teams to be competing for play-off seeding when they met in week 16. Fast forward to the present day and the concept of Houston even competing for a spot in the post-season is laughable as they've stuttered to a 2-12 record after losing 12 straight games. The Broncos meanwhile are sitting pretty at 11-3 although last weeks shock defeat to San Diego means that they'll have to win out if they want to hold of Kansas City and secure the number one seed in the AFC. Even though Houston ran New England close a couple of weeks ago I can't see the same happening this Sunday and Peyton Manning should make hay as he chases the single season NFL touchdown record held by Patriots gunslinger Tom Brady.  
Broncos 41, Texans 21

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

After the Jaguars ran off a surprise three game winning streak they came back to earth last week when Buffalo sent them to their tenth defeat of the season. Tennessee meanwhile were unable to pick up the win against Arizona, although they were able to take the NFC play-off contenders to overtime. All told it'd been a season to forget for both of these AFC south teams but I think the Titans have just about enough talent to overcome the Jags this weekend. If the Panthers - Saints game is much watch TV on Sunday, this game is 'must avoid' television. Titans 20, Jaguars 17

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

This game could potentially be a play-off preview should Indianapolis end up the fourth seed in the AFC and Kansas City the fifth. For that to happen the Chiefs will likely have to win on Sunday and I fully expect them to be up to the task in front of the raucous Arrowhead faithful. A Colts win over Houston last week can't hide the fact that over the past couple of months Indianapolis have gone from one of the most feared teams in the league to one every team in the play-offs would like to face. Trent Richardson continues to be one of the worst running backs in the NFL despite the Colts giving up a first round pick to acquire him from Cleveland, while Reggie Wayne has been sorely missed at wide receiver. Kansas City meanwhile have put up impressive points totals in each of the past two weeks as Jamaal Charles has firmly established himself as one of the leagues elite running backs. The Chiefs should be able to continue that trend against a very average Colts defense, and I'm not sure Andrew Luck will be able to keep up. Colts 21, Chiefs 34

Cleveland @ New York Jets

The Jets are 6-8. The Browns are 4-10. Neither is very good. Jason Campbell is better than Geno Smith, and Rex Ryan will almost certainly be fired at the conclusion of this season. Those are known facts, less tangible is the future for both of these embattled franchises. Cleveland fans should be optimistic as the Browns have shown signs of life during this season not least when they should have beaten New England two weeks ago. A questionable pass interference call hurt them that day, unfortunately for Jets fans Geno Smith rarely hurls the ball far enough down the field to get those kind of penalties. It probably won't be a pretty game but I'm plumping for a Cleveland win and yet more misery for big apple football fans. Browns 16, Jets 10

Tampa Bay @ St. Louis

The Rams are currently without their franchise quarterback with Sam Bradford on injured reserve, while the Buccaneers may have found there's in Mike Glennon after Josh Freeman was jettisoned earlier in the season. Although these teams share records with the Jets and Browns don't be misled into thinking they are as weak as their AFC counterparts. St. Louis have the misfortune of being the the NFL's best division while Tampa Bay have come a long way since they began the season 0-7. Last weeks win over the Saints really was a statement game from the Rams, who with talented youngsters such as Tavon Austin should be able to win their second consecutive game in the comfort of the Edward Jones Dome and inch ever closer to a .500 record. Buccaneers 21, Rams 27

Dallas @ Washington

When these two NFC east rivals meet you can almost always throw the form book out of the window, which thankfully for both the Cowboys and Redskins means ignoring their recent woeful records. Washington showed signs of life under Kirk Cousins last week who's in for the embattled Robert Griffin III at quarterback. However they still lost by a solitary point to Atlanta and the dysfunctional 'skins are one of the biggest messes in the NFL. Dallas threw it away themselves against a Green Bay side minus Aaron Rodgers, in the process making this weeks trip to Washington a must win. As bad as Washington have been I truly believe that Tony Romo's poor December record plays on the quarterbacks mind during these crucial encounters, which leads me to believe that on the road against a division foe with something to prove Dallas will fall short when it matters - just for a change.
Cowboys 30, Redskins 33

New York Giants @ Detroit

Last week Eli Manning threw his 25th interception of the season (he's thrown five in a game twice this year), in the process doing so for the second time in his career. Since 1990 there have only been seven such mediocre seasons, which obviously makes Eli a first ballot hall of famer. Moving on to the game at hand Detroit know they have to win this weekend after they've lost two in a row when their fate had appeared to be in their own hands at 7-5. With a 4-1 record within their division they hold the tie-breaker over both Green Bay and Chicago, although thanks to the Packers tie against Minnesota that will be irrelevant in any case. The Lions defensive front is one of the most feared in football and it's tough to see how Manning will be able to cope in the face of a fearsome pass rush, especially with his favourite wide-out Victor Cruz sidelined with injury. It's been a long season for the Giants and I fully expect Detroit to compound New York's misery further with a convincing win on Sunday. Giants 18, Lions 34

Arizona @ Seattle

The Cardinals travel to the loudest stadium in football knowing that only a win will do if they are to stay alive in the play-off hunt. Unfortunately Seattle are unlikely to be in hospitable mood with home-field advantage on the line for the Seahawks, who with a win can ensure the road to New Jersey runs through Washington in January. Carson Palmer has played well this season but he has also been inconsistent, something that doesn't bode well against the elite Seahawks defense. As good as the Cardinals are, and I think they are good enough to compete in the post-season, the schedule hasn't been kind to them and I think they'll suffer a terminal defeat against the best team in the NFL; not that there's any shame in that. Cardinals 17, Seahawks 27

New England @ Baltimore

This rematch of last seasons AFC championship game could also precede a potential play-off tie next month following Baltimore's late season surge as they attempt to defend the Lombardi they won in February. The Patriots hopes of clinching home-field took a blow after they lost in Miami last week and without Rob Gronkowski New England looks worryingly impotent on offense. Baltimore edged past Detroit on Monday night to keep themselves in the play-off hunt but Joe Flacco suffered an MCL sprain, though he'll attempt to play through it tomorrow. Both of these teams are flawed and not quite as good as previous championship editions yet with Tom Brady still in tow you have to figure the Patriots will find a way to win this tough road encounter, especially with Flacco banged up. Patriots 24, Ravens 20

Pittsburgh @ Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers remains out for Green Bay with his collarbone injury, meaning Matt Flynn will have to carry over his second half form from last week if the Packers are to keep their play-off hopes alive. At 6-8 Pittsburgh's own play-off dream is dead but they'll still be keen to play the role of spoiler at a potentially snowy Lambeau Field. Eddie Lacy has provided a real spark to the Packers ground game and helping Flynn to settle in, and with the Steelers D a far cry from the impenetrable units of past years I've every confidence the Packers can push on from last weeks whirlwind second half. Should Green Bay make it through to January they could be the team everyone wants to avoid, however they'll need help as their fate is out of their hands
Steelers 27, Packers 30

Oakland @ San Diego

While the Raiders season was rendered meaningless weeks ago San Diego surprisingly kept themselves alive with their shock win in Denver last Thursday. Oakland have struggled on offense and when the choices at quarterback are Matt McGloin and Terrell Pryor it's easy to see why. However it's their defense that's been their real Achilles heal with only Jacksonville shipping more points in the AFC, so expect Phillip Rivers to take full advantage and put a lopsided number on the scoreboard. San Diego are no great shakes but it would still be shocking to see anything other than a Chargers win here. Raiders 17, Chargers 35

 Chicago @ Philadelphia

If Washington beat Dallas as I've predicted then Philly has a chance to wrap up the division and the number three seed in the NFC with a win tonight. However if Dallas were to win however then this becomes a dead rubber from the Eagles perspective, although Chicago will still have every incentive to win if they're to stay atop the NFC north. Either way I'm not sure the Eagles will be able to live with the Chicago passing attack now that Jay Cutler is back in charge of the offense with both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery offering him big targets on the outside. If Matt Cassel can look like Tom Brady against the Eagles pass defense then Cutler could turn into the 2004 Madden video game version of Michael Vick (basically superhuman and unstoppable) which leads me to believe Chicago will bolster their play-off hopes while damaging Philadelphia's in the process.
Bears 34, Eagles 27

Atlanta @ San Francisco

Somehow this game has made it through the flex scheduling procedure without being shifted out of the Monday night slot, so if you want to watch any football tomorrow night you'll have to put up with this mismatch to end all mismatches. While the Falcons are in prime position to nab a top five pick in the draft San Fransisco are busy jockeying for play-off position, although they'll have to win on the road thrice to make it to the Superbowl with Seattle locks to win the NFC west crown. Colin Kaepernick's been playing well lately which bodes well for the 49ers as they look to win their final ever game at Candlestick Park before moving into their new stadium in Santa Clara next year. Unless things go worryingly astray then they should be able to do so with ease.
Falcons 13, 49ers 28

Those are my picks for this week, let me know if you agree or not in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley. I'll be back later in the week with a Christmas special AFF podcast.

 
  



 

 

Week 15 NFL Predictions

Joe Flacco is looking to lead another Ravens play-off charge

It's that time of the season where every game matters, for the right or wrong reasons. Teams in the play-off hunt are desperate to earn a place in the post-season lottery while coaches of the sides at the opposite end of the spectrum are in a fight to save their jobs. Additionally play-off seeding and home-field advantage are up for grabs plus next April's draft order is far from decided. Here are my picks for this weekends full slate of NFL games, where hopefully I can erase my incorrect prediction of a Denver win on Thursday after they were upset at home by the suddenly relevant San Diego Chargers.

Washington @ Atlanta

Both of these teams won their division a year ago, but what a difference twelve months makes. The Falcons have been awful on their way to a 4-9 record although in fairness they have suffered through injuries to stars including Steven Jackson, Roddy White and Julio Jones. The real story to follow here this week is the Redskins benching of Robert Griffin III (covered in this weeks AFF Podcast which can be found here) for backup Kirk Cousins, who'll be looking to impress against a weak Falcons defense. After losing to the Matt Flynn led Packers a week ago I'm loathe to pick Atlanta here and as bad as Washington have been lately I'm backing Kirk Cousins to go out and have a good game in the first of his three game trial. Redskins 27, Falcons 17

Chicago @ Cleveland

The Browns will be wondering how on earth they didn't hold on and beat New England last week, but unfortunately they'll have little time to get over that defeat and they face tough opposition in Chicago. The Bears put on a clinic against Dallas last Monday and find themselves in a tie for first place in the NFC north after Detroit slipped up in the Philadelphia snow. Jay Cutler returns at quarterback for the Bears despite the excellent play of Josh McCown in his place during his absence, so one thing to keep an eye on is that situation should Cutler struggle early on. However with weapons such as Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to throw to Cutler should be just fine and as long as Chicago don't take the Browns lightly they should walk away from Ohio with a crucial late season road win. Bears 24, Browns 16

Houston @ Indianapolis

Neither of these teams are playing well currently and the Texans have been so bad that after last weeks loss to Jacksonville coach Gary Kubiak was relieved of his duties. Chuck Pagano has slightly more leeway with the Colts after his side raced out to a good start including wins over Denver and New England but he'll still be aware that his team needs to pick up some momentum heading into the play-offs. Houston will be dangerous opposition here but I'm afraid the Texans are such a shambles that they're just the medicine Pagano will have ordered for his stuttering team. Home win and a big day for Andrew Luck. Texans 18, Colts 30

Buffalo @ Jacksonville

 Much like the Washington - Atlanta game this matchup features no play-off implications. However both sets of players still have pride to fight for and the Jaguars have actually been one of the leagues better teams over the last month or so. Coach Gus Bradley has unveiled a few trick plays on offense including half back and wide receiver passes while the former Seahawks defensive co-ordinator has got that side of the ball playing steady football again. After Buffalo were hammered by Tampa Bay last week it's difficult to pick them here and the form book certainly points towards a home win. I'm going to go by that book - however I think it'll be close and could actually provide some entertainment to fans of these two ailing franchises. One final point; Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts is likely to miss out with a groin injury while Maurice Jones Drew is doubtful with a hamstring strain so Bradley may have to get even more creative on offense. Bills 13, Jaguars 17

New England @ Miami

I have to admit I've been mightily impressed with how Joe Philbin's Dolphins have rebounded from the unseemly 'rookie hazing' saga involving Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito, with Miami all of a sudden finding themselves well positioned to make the play-offs at 7-6. The Patriots survived a scare last week at home to Cleveland but they'll have to be wary of a dangerous Dolphins team who could cause them some problems. New England know that three wins from three will secure them homefield throughout the AFC play-offs; an incentive to win if ever there was one. Ryan Tannehill will go up against the legendary Tom Brady in what promises to be a tasty AFC east affair and upon further inspection the youngster has eerily similar stats to the three time Superbowl champion on the season. With Rob Gronkowski out injured I have reservations about the visitors ability to put up points on a stout Miami defense. I also think Tannehill has enough weapons on offense, including speedster Mike Wallace, to out duel Tom Brady and complete the upset. Patriots 20, Dolphins 23

Philadelphia @ Minnesota

Both Adrian Petersen and Toby Gerhart miss out for the Vikings as they host the NFC east leading Eagles, which should make a difficult task that much harder. Philly have won five in a row through a combination of explosive offense (they lead the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more) and improving defense (they haven't given up more than 21 points for six straight weeks). Matt Cassel starts at quarterback for the Vikings which should encourage Bill Davis's defense further still and without their major threat on the offensive side of the ball it's hard to see how Minnesota can keep this close into the fourth quarter. Although the Eagles will have to be wary that they don't fall for the classic 'trap game' there's such a gulf between the teams that I can't look past a Philly win which would move them to 9-5 for the year. Eagles 31, Vikings 17

Seattle @ New York Giants

One of the leagues best quarterbacks this season, Russell Wilson, takes on one of the worst. Yes, I know Eli Manning has two Superbowl rings (Trent Dilfer has one) but he's been atrocious this season en route to his worst season since he was a rookie. Factor in that he's facing the unparallelled Seahawks defense and, well, it doesn't look good for the G-men. Percy Harvin misses out with injury for Seattle but his loss is offset by the Giants own Jason Pierre-Paul hitting the sidelines. After a tough loss to the 49ers last week expect Seattle to come out hard tonight and bounce back with a convincing win, sending the Giants to 5-9 in the process. Seahawks 28, Giants 14

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay

While the 49ers are the clear favourites on paper here don't write off the Buccaneers, who have played excellent football in recent weeks. They've won four of their last five and with Mike Glennon showing he can be the QB of the future in West Florida things are looking up for Greg Schiano's crew. Whether or not Shiano's done enough to keep his job beyond this season is questionable but a win here would go a long way to keeping him employed for 2014 and beyond. Both teams head into this one healthy which should lead to a competitive game. After last weeks emotional win against Seattle this just screams 'let down' for San Francisco, who could be in for a shock in the form of the surging Buccaneers. I think Tampa has enough about them on defense to control Colin Kaepernick and if they can break a few big plays with the ball they could nick a huge win and condemn the 49ers to a shocking defeat. 49ers 16, Buccaneers 17

New York Jets @ Carolina

I'm not sure how, but the Jets are 6-7 and not out of the race for the final AFC wild-card spot. Nonetheless I don't give them a prayer against the Panthers who've impressed this season primarily with their stellar defense, a troubling sign for Geno Smith and New York's terrible offense. Cam Newton should be able to make more than enough plays to outscore the pitiful Jets offense and it's likely he'll have favourable field position on more than once occasion if Smith continues to turn the ball over at his current rate. I'm going for a Panthers win (obviously), and I don't think it'll be particularly close. Jets 10, Panthers 30

Kansas City @ Oakland

This AFC west battle all of a sudden becomes that much more important for KC to win after Denver's slip up on Thursday night, with the Chiefs knowing that a victory ties them with the Broncos at 11-3. Although the Broncos hold the tie-breaker over Kansas City courtesy of their head to head record Andy Reid will know that a first round play-off bye is within his grasp and he's unlikely to let a mediocre Raiders side get in his way. Matt McGloin will start at QB for the Raiders a week after Terrell Pryor got the nod and performed terribly against the Jets (that's how New York has won six games!). McGloin actually looked good during the second half of that game but thanks to his limited arm strength he can only do some much with the football and when you factor in running back Darren McFadden's absence it's likely the Raiders will struggle to keep pace with a suddenly prolific Kansas City offense. I've seen Andy Reid coached teams slip up in similar situations before but I just can't see it happening this week. Oakland, I'm afraid, are just that bad. Chiefs 34, Raiders 17

Green Bay @ Dallas

The famous Bob Marley song goes "no woman, no cry", and the Packers may as well rewrite their own lyrics "no Rodgers, no chance". Except against the hapless Falcons, of course. Even though linebacker Sean Lee is missing for Dallas here I just can't see Matt Flynn doing much against the rest of the Cowboys defense, although running back Eddie Lacy could have some joy on the ground. Tony Romo wasn't at his best on Monday against Chicago but he's still one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and he should have no trouble putting the necessary points on the board to win this one and keep the Cowboys hot on the trail of Philadelphia. Packers 17, Cowboys 26

New Orleans @ St. Louis

There won't be many times this season where the gulf in class between quarterbacks is as large as it is in this game, where Drew Brees squares off against Kellen Clemens. To be perfectly honest the Rams would be better off with a roided up Roger Clemens throwing the pigskin, but hey ho. A huge win against Carolina last week put the Saints in the box seat to win the NFC south and claim a first round play-off bye and they'll be thankful they have this relatively easy game sandwiched in between the return game against the rival Panthers. St. Louis have a pretty good defense so they won't go down in embarrassing fashion here but so long as the Saints stay on point they should have no trouble cementing their status as the second best team in the NFC. Saints 28, Rams 18

Arizona @ Tennesssee

While Bruce Arian's Cardinals are still in contention for a wild-card spot in the NFC unfortunately the same can't be said of Mike Munchak's Titans. Tennessee had a slim chance of catching the Colts in the AFC south but after they lost the their divisional opponents that hope evaporated, yet Arizona know that after they beat St. Louis last week a win here would very much keep their play-off hopes alive. Ryan Fitzpatrick once had a good half season in Buffalo, a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. Carson Palmer probably had a good season once, too, but thankfully for him and Cardinals fans he's surrounded by far better talent on the offensive side of the ball and he can also rely on a very good defense to get keep the opposition out of the end zone more often than not. Cardinals 23, Titans 14

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Whisper it, but Cincinnati could be well on the way to establishing an AFC north dynasty. Coach Marvin Lewis has done a fantastic job of hiring the right staff, including co-coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer, as well as acquiring talent on the field. I still have my doubts about Andy Dalton's ability to become a franchise quarterback and get it done in the play-offs but in fairness many people had the same doubts about Joe Flacco until he won a Lombardi in February. The Steelers are just about done for the season now after losing at home to Miami last week so it's difficult to envision them keeping the Bengals at bay here, especially when you consider their poor defense and the fact they'll be up against Cincy weapons A.J Green and Marvin Jones. There's only one way I'm leaning here and that's towards the visitors and their tenth win of the season. Bengals 30, Steelers 20

Baltimore @ Detroit

These two 7-6 teams square off in Monday Night Football with both in the knowledge that a loss will severely hamper their chances of reaching the post-season. Detroit looked strong early against Philadelphia last week but faded late, although it's fair to blame the snow for their poor showing. Back in the under cover comfort of Ford Field they should be able to involve Megatron more this week and they'll also be hoping to have Reggie Bush back after he tweaked a hamstring in the warm up last Sunday. Baltimore will be no pushovers however and they've enjoyed a good run of late by winning five of their last six games. This is a difficult game to pick but I've come to the conclusion that even though the Lions are at home they aren't in the greatest run of form unlike their opponents, while Baltimore also have more big game experience following their Superbowl victory earlier this year. Ravens 24, Lions 20

Do you agree with those picks? Let me know in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley. I'll be back later in the week with the AFF podcast, so until then.
 

American Football Focus Podcast 12/12/13

Mike Shannahan could be living on borrowed time in the capital

This weeks American Football Focus Podcast is up and you can listen to it right here. During it I cover some of last weeks most exciting action, Mike Shannahan's benching of Robert Griffin III and finally I preview this weeks Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the San Diego Chargers and the Denver Broncos.

In reference to my 'tweet of the week' section of the podcast here is the photograph which I saw on twitter following the 'Snowbowl' between Philadelphia and Detroit, courtesy of 'Couch Correspondent' (twitter handle @notkerouac).

I hope you enjoy the podcast, you can leave feedback in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley.

Eagles Win 'Snow Bowl', Fortune Favours Patriots Over Cleveland, MNF Preview and More

Matt McGloin gets given a big BEAR hug. Get it?

At one point during the second quarter in Philadelphia yesterday it was reported that some parts of the field were buried under eight inches of snow. While there was also inclement weather in Washington, Pittsburgh and Baltimore it was the Eagles and Lions who were made to compete in the most ludicrous conditions, with the game dubbed the 'Snow Bowl' by the local Philadelphia media. All told it was the most wacky of NFL weekends, with multiple games not settled until the final seconds and a record 90 touchdowns scored, the most ever for a single day in the league. Scroll down to read my take on the Snow Bowl, New England getting out of jail, my Monday Night Football preview and much more.

Shady McCoy Snowploughs His Way Into the Record Books

With 217 yards on the ground last night Eagles running back LeSean "Shady" McCoy broke Steve Van Buren's franchise record for rushing yards in a single game. However it took a while for McCoy and the Philly offense to break out; they actually went into half-time down 14-0. Chip Kelly deserves credit for adapting to the conditions in the second half and a mixture of deep passes and up-the-middle runs combined to see the Eagles put up 34 points after the break, including 28 in the fourth quarter alone to win 34-20. Right now McCoy is surely one of the top two backs in the NFL alongside Adrian Peterson, the later doubtful for next weeks Minnesota-Philadelphia clash with an ankle injury. With five wins in a row the Eagles are looking more and more dangerous by the week and I'd hazard a guess that Pete Carroll and Sean Peyton would rather not have to face the streaking birds in the play-offs - even in their own building.

Onsides Kick Recovery and Dubious PI Call Help Patriots Edge Browns

With just over a minute left of the fourth quarter New England trailed Cleveland 26-14, a seemingly insurmountable deficit. However after Tom Brady threw a touchdown pass to Julian Edelman the Patriots miraculously recovered Stephen Gostkowski's perfectly weighted onsides kick to give Brady the ball back with more than enough time on the clock to score the touchdown that would give them the lead by a score of 27-26. Leon McFadden will count himself dreadfully unlucky to have been flagged for the defensive pass interference penalty that gave the Patriots the ball at the Cleveland one, and having watched the replay I'm afraid to say McFadden's grievance is entirely valid. The Patriots appear to get the rub of the green more often than not and Cleveland will be devastated at having failed to hold on to win a game that was well within their grasp. Ultimately however the result will bear little impact on the final standings this season, with New England almost certain to be the number two seed in the AFC while Cleveland were a long shot to make the post-season even before this latest defeat.

49ers Earn Big Win Over Division Rivals Seattle, Take Big Step Towards Play-Offs

After San Fransisco were blown out by Seattle earlier in the year not many people gave them a chance yesterday in the return engagement at Candelstick Park. Despite this disturbing lack of faith from most people (I'd like to point out I picked them to win in my weekly predictions piece) the 49ers were able to overcome the Seahawks in a defensive struggle by a score of 19-17. One interesting statistic surround the game and the NFC west is that for all the talk about Seattle's incredible home field advantage San Fransisco are now unbeaten at home within the division since 2008(!). Neither team was really ever able to get anything going on offense, but when Frank Gore was able to sneak through the Seahawks defense and gain 51-yards late in the fourth quarter he gave Phil Dawson the opportunity to kick his fourth field goal of the day and give San Fransisco an invaluable win. Neither Russell Wilson nor Colin Kaepernick was able to top 200 yards passing on the day, which can be read one of two ways. Yes both of these teams have formidable defenses but questions remain about each quarterbacks ability to put the team on their back when needed. Despite the loss Seattle are still two games up on the 49ers in the standings, but they'll have to be careful not to lose their one game lead over New Orleans in the race for home field throughout the play-offs.

Saints Snap Panthers Eight Game Winning Streak

When Carolina were 1-3 their fans would've bitten your hand off if you'd have offered them a 9-4 record with just three games remaining of the regular season. Nonetheless after heading into last nights clash with the Saints tied with New Orleans in the standings, the Panthers will have been disappointed to have succumbed so meekly to their division rivals in the Louisiana Superdome. The 31-13 beat down was a real statement performance from Drew Brees and Sean Peyton, who'll have been delighted with their sides offensive output against what has been a stout Carolina defense. Marques Colston caught two touchdowns as did tight end Jimmy Graham, demonstrating the wealth of weapons that Brees has to throw to. Cam Newton will wish he had the same kind of talent outside as he was repeatedly dropped behind the line while scanning the secondary. Newton was sacked five times before the game was over, a large number for such a strong and mobile quarterback. These two teams face off again in Carolina in a fortnight where Ron Rivera's Panthers will be looking for sweet, sweet revenge.

In terms of play-off relevance and excitement those four games were the ones that made the headlines yesterday, but that doesn't mean the other games didn't contain plenty of drama themselves. Below are a few more things I took away from week 14 of the NFL season, followed by my Monday Night Football prediction.

- After giving up 37 points to the Jets (the Jets!!) it's safe to say the Oakland Raiders don't have one of the better defenses in football.

- Peyton Manning put up 51 big ones against the Titans in Denver, so maybe those rumblings about his ability throwing in cold weather will quieten down.

- Nice bounce back performance from Arizona, who beat St. Louis 30-10 to launch themselves back into the NFC wild card race.

- Mike Shannahan's seat isn't warm, it's on fire. He could be gone before the season is out. At least the Redskins will have a high first round pi.. what, they traded it to St. Louis? Oh.

- How did the Steelers Antonio Brown not stay in bounds on that last second dash for the end-zone? After a series of laterals Brown was sprung free and had a path to pay dirt along the left hand sideline, only to miscalculate the size of his foot (maybe he thought he was an eight instead of a nine?) and barely graze the edge of the field of play. Had Pittsburgh won they'd have been just one game behind Baltimore in the race for the final wild card in the AFC.

Monday Night Football Preview: Dallas @ Chicago

Jay Cutler misses out for the Bears, a big blow for Chicago although they do have one of the leagues better QB understudies in Josh McCown. Both teams are in the hunt for a division title so expect a ferocious intensity throughout in what promises to be an excellent prime time contest. Tony Romo has quietly performed well in recent weeks despite his penchant for folding in the months of November and December and he'll face his sternest test so far at Soldier Field in cold conditions on a notoriously poor surface. I think the game will be close, there's no doubt in my mind about that, but with the Bears D suffering in recent weeks and with Romo able to call on weapons such as Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray and Jason Witten I'm going for a road win in the windy city. Cowboys 34, Bears 27

That's it from me today, you can contact me in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley. I'll be back on Thursday night with the American Football Focus podcast. Until then..

Week 14 NFL Predictions

Geno Smith was benched for the Jets last week by coach Rex Ryan

Having been mostly absent this week due to work I'm back and so are my picks for tonight and tomorrows NFL action. With each team having just four games to try and cement their spot in the annual post-season dance every game is just that little bit more important from here on in, and there are some crackers lined up on the schedule over the next couple of days. Keep reading to find out who I think will take a step closer to the promised land of play-off riches and why.

Minnesota @ Baltimore

All of a sudden the Ravens are in a good position to make the play-offs as a wild card and perhaps even challenge the Bengals for division supremacy. The defense is starting to come around and with Joe Flacco at quarterback they have someone pulling the strings who knows how to get it done. Adrian Peterson leads the Vikings charge as per, and after their upset win over Chicago last week Minnesota will come into this one with high spirits. However their record doesn't lie and at 3-8-1 the Vikings clearly aren't as well rounded a team as the 6-6 Ravens, so expect a fairly comfortable home win for the reigning champ. Vikings 20, Ravens 30

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati 

These two 8-4 teams do battle in a contest for the number three seed in the AFC, which could prove hugely significant with Kansas City likely to play the #4 seed in the wild card round. The Colts just about managed to hold off Tennessee last week but haven't impressed for weeks, with Andrew Luck struggling to run the offense as well as he was earlier in the season when he had the likes of Reggie Wayne available. The Bengals have been equally inconsistent, however with home field advantage on their side and a stout defense I just can't see the Colts scoring enough points to leave Ohio with a victory. Colts 17, Bengals 24

Atlanta @ Green Bay

One of these teams is the worst in the NFC, while the other would be if Aaron Rodgers were to never play again. Just a few weeks ago the Packers were in pole position to win the NFC north but that dream is as good as gone after losses to Philadelphia and Detroit amongst others in recent weeks. I don't like to criticise NFL players but I seriously don't think I could play quarterback any worse than Matt Flynn did on Thanksgiving. While Green Bay are at home and technically have something to play for Aaron Rodgers has already been ruled out and as a result I'm picking the Falcons to win here and take their winning streak to two, but I doubt it will be pretty and I doubt you'll want to watch this one.  Falcons 21, Packers 10

Cleveland @ New England

Jason Campbell versus Tom Brady is about as big a mismatch at the QB position as you're likely to see this season, and even though New England were run close by the hapless Texans last week I'd expect them to blow Cleveland away this evening. The Browns have a pretty good defense - unfortunately their offense is pitiful and places immense strain on the players who operate on the other side of the ball. The Patriots should win this one going away, but I still anticipate that Cleveland will put up some semblance of a fight in Foxboro. Browns 17, Patriots 31

Oakland @ New York Jets

When I said earlier that there are some great games on the schedule this week I wasn't referring to the Falcons - Packers match up, nor this scrap between two quarterback needy teams. Both Dennis Allen and Rex Ryan are on the hot seat (Ryan's seat is practically on fire) so each side should be fighting for their coaches future. However there's no substitute for talent, and both the Raiders and the Jets possess little of it. The Raiders actually played well against Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, and when you also consider that they've enjoyed a ten day mini-bye week they're my pick here. Oh, and Geno Smith is starting for the Jets. When Matt McGloin is clearly the best quarterback in an NFL stadium it's a sad day for the league and everyone involved. Raiders 16, Jets 7

Detroit @ Philadelphia

These two could end up being the three and four seeds in the NFC, so there's no shortage of talent on display here. Nick Foles is playing lights out and statistically has been the best quarterback in the NFL this season. Matthew Stafford has been pretty impressive himself and with Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson enjoying career seasons the Lions offense is one of the few in the NFL that can match up with the Eagles. The key difference between these two teams for me is in the secondary. While Philly have seen their back four improve as the season has wore on Detroit struggle to contain other teams passing games, a flaw that could prove fatal at the Linc later on. It'll be a good game and there could be lots of points, but I think with the roll the Eagles and Chip Kelly are on it's Philadelphia's game to lose. Lions 31, Eagles 38

Miami @ Pittsburgh

The Steelers have had to deal with the fall out from coach Mike Tomlin's trip on Ravens kick returner Jacoby Jones all week, but the real issue for them from last week was their inability to score points - something they've struggled to do all season. At 6-6 the Dolphins have a wild card spot to fight for but it won't be easy on the road against a barely alive Pittsburgh outfit. Miami have the better rushing attack, and it'll be fascinating to see how Mike Wallace fares against his old team. Unfortunately for Steelers fans I don't think they stack up well at all against the Dolphins solid defense, so I'm going to go for a road win in a low scoring game. Dolphins 17, Steelers 14

Buffalo @ Tampa Bay

These two bottom feeders square off in Florida in a game where the main point of contention is who will draft where in April's draft. Rather rarely for two poor teams neither will be in the market for a QB however, with the Bills having selected E.J Manuel in the first round last spring and Mike Glennon having played well for the Buccaneers since he supplanted Josh Freeman as the starter. The Bills have been trending downwards recently while Tampa have shown signs of life, so I'm going to pick the home team this time. Bills 17, Buccaneers 24

Kansas City @ Washington

With the Redskins season having well and truly gone off the rails the Chiefs have a great opportunity to end their recent three game losing streak. Having suffered some injuries the Chiefs defense isn't what it once was so Robert Griffin III will also have the chance to bounce back from a subpar season. I'm not sure he's in the right frame of mind to do so, however, so expect Alex Smith and co to get the win by taking advantage of a porous Redskins defense. Chiefs 27, Redskins 19

Tennessee @ Denver

Denver got a huge win by beating the Chiefs last week in Kansas City and as a result are in pole position for the number one seed in the AFC. Peyton Manning will be relishing the chance to go up against a pretty weak Titans D and as long as Manning can muster enough power on his throws in the cold Denver air the Broncos should put up more than enough points to outscore the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Titans offense. Titans 24, Broncos 38

St. Louis @ Arizona

Last weeks letdown against Philadelphia aside the Cardinals have been playing some good football in recent months which is more than can be said for the Rams. It's been a struggle for St. Louis ever since Sam Bradford went down for the season and they'll have an interesting dilemma in April when their name is called in the draft. Do they select another quarterback with a top ten pick, or do they invest their resources in other areas of a struggling roster? The Rams pass rush has been quietly excellent all season so they should be able to pressure Carson Palmer tonight, but that won't matter as the elite Cardinals D will keep Kellen Clemens and the Rams offense quiet. Rams 13, Cardinals 24

New York Giants @ San Diego

Eli Manning goes back to the city he rejected nine years ago to take on the man he was traded for, Phillip Rivers. Neither team is in the play-off hunt however which means the two star QB's will be playing exclusively for pride. The Giants have enjoyed a more productive second half of the season than San Diego, and for that reason I'm going for the visitors who'll attempt to end the season on the right note. Giants 26, Chargers 23

Seattle @ San Francisco

This NFC west battle is the marquee game on this weeks schedule, with the Seahawks visiting Candlestick park for the last time. The last time these two teams met San Fran were blown out so they'll be seeking revenge, and they'll enjoy the fact that they won't have to take on the NFC's elite in front of the raucous Seattle faithful. The 49ers defense has what it takes to stop Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle ground game but Russell Wilson will fancy his chances of exploiting the niners secondary. Colin Kaepernick is the real key to the game and if he can continue to play as he has in recent weeks the 49ers will have every chance of getting the upset. I think he's got it in him, and the Seahawks could see their lead in the division shrink. Seahawks 21, 49ers 24

Carolina @ New Orleans

Much like the previous game this match-up sees two division rivals take each other on with the NFC south title on the line. Cam Newton has played fantastically in recent weeks and the Panthers win over New England was a real statement game, but taking on the Saints in their own house is an entirely different proposition. Drew Brees may have struggled in Seattle but as one of the leagues elite quarterbacks I'd back him to bounce back. It could go either way in this one, but when it doubt you'd figure the Saints in the comfort of the dome are the safe bet. Panthers 24, Saints 30

There are my picks, let me know what you think in the comments and I'll be back tomorrow with a Monday Night Football preview.

AFF Podcast #7, Week 13 Thoughts and MNF Prediction

"I said give me a hug!"

Firstly, apologies for my lack of predictions this weekend. I've been pretty busy so unfortunately I was unable to get them out in time. I did however get a podcast done with Scott Taylor last week, which you can listen to here. Moving on, there's plenty of action from both Thanksgiving and last night to review in addition to looking forward to tonight's bumper Monday Night Football match-up between New Orleans and Seattle. The two teams are currently jostling for home-field advantage throughout in play-offs in the NFC, and with both the Saints and Seahawks much better at home than on the road the game has added significance. But before we explore that titanic tussle any further lets look back on the games from week 13 that are already in the books.

Broncos Complete Chiefs Sweep, In Pole Position For #1 Seed

Having begun the season 9-0 Kansas City are in danger of stumbling into the post-season after three consecutive defeats, including two losses to their division rivals Denver. The Broncos may have lost to New England in last weeks classic but this bounce-back victory on the road by the score of 35-28 gives them the inside track to the AFC west crown and more importantly a first round bye. Surprisingly it's been Kansas City's defense which has let them down in recent weeks, and after San Diego ran riot last time out Peyton Manning put the Kansas City D to the sword by throwing five touchdown passes. However it wasn't just the Kansas pass defense which struggled yesterday, as Broncos tailback Monte Ball racked up 117 yards on just thirteen carries. With only a moderately effective offense Andy Reid will be worried about his once dominant defensive unit and to make matters worse star defensive end Justin Houston looks set to miss multiple weeks with an elbow injury. Denver meanwhile don't face a team with a winning record in their remaining four games and it would be a brave man who'd bet against them finishing the regular season 14-2. Whether or not Manning can get it done in the harsh January climate, where he has oft struggled during his career, remains to be seen.

Lions Feast on Flynn, Rout Packers

Some teams, including Green Bay, tend to invest very little resources in their backup quarterback and unfortunately that decision is coming back to haunt Mike McCarthy in a big way. First Seneca Wallace then Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn have failed to play even competently for the Packers and Thursday night in Detroit saw the worst offensive performance in Aaron Rodgers absence yet as they went down 40-10. Flynn was sacked seven times including once for a safety and the former Bills QB also turned the ball over three times. The win for Detroit was their first in ten years in the traditional Thanksgiving showpiece, with Matthew Stafford throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns in an impressive performance. Reggie Bush also played well, rushing for 117 yards and a score while Joique Bell totaled 94 yards on the ground with a touchdown himself. Much like Kansas City the Packers defense has declined alarmingly as the season has wore on, however unlike their AFC counterparts they look extremely unlikely to still be playing in January. As for Detroit, thanks to a Chicago loss they have a one game lead in the NFC north and with a superior record within the division they'd have to play pretty poorly in the coming weeks to miss out on a play-off berth.

Eagles Hold On Against Disappointing Cardinals

In a game between two play-off contenders it was Philadelphia and Nick Foles who came up trumps against an erratic Carson Palmer led Arizona outfit. After taking a 24-7 lead early in the second half Philly nearly threw the game away from that commanding position, but a late defensive stop and some questionable penalties helped them earn the win. The Arizona defense lived up to their reputation and were steadfast against the #1 ranked Eagles rushing attack, but two interceptions and a lost fumble from Palmer gave the Eagles good field position on more than one occasion. Foles was sharp for most of the game but what would have been his first interception of the season was wiped out by a defensive holding call. There probably isn't much between these two teams, I'd say the Cardinals are more rounded while Philly has a better quarterback, however unfortunately for Bruce Arians' and his team Arizona find themselves in the NFL's best division while the Eagles are in probably the worst. Both could be dangerous in January albeit for different reasons, however it's unlikely that there will be room for both once the regular season dust settles.

Steelers Loss to Ravens Overshadowed by Sideline 'Trip'

Mike Tomlin often earns plaudits for being the 'coolest' head coach in the league, but Pittsburgh's leader took his often active role on the sidelines a little too far late Thursday night when he looked to have tried to trip Baltimore kick returner Jacoby Jones in the third quarter. Jones had built up a head of steam and had to alter his path in order to avoid Tomlin, who incredibly wasn't flagged for the misdemeanor. However the league is looking into the incident and all signs point towards Tomlin receiving a fairly hefty fine. A suspension also isn't out of the question but it would be surprising to see the league come down so heavily on a previously well behaved coach. The game itself was a good one between two 5-6 teams, coming down to a failed two point conversion from the Steelers in the closing minutes and finishing 22-20. Neither side set the field alight with explosive offensive play but that won't matter to the Ravens who are still in with a chance of defending the Lombardi Trophy they won back in February.

Colts Effectively Clinch Division With Win Over Rival Titans

Indianapolis may not be playing well, in fact there's no 'may' about it, but they'll be playing for a while yet as they edged past Tennessee 22-14 yesterday. Adam Vinatieri kicked five field goals and without the future hall of fame kickers steady leg Andrew Luck and co may have struggled to overcome the resilient Titans. Although the Colts couldn't muster much offensively their defense showed up for the first time in weeks, an encouraging sign and something they'll need to keep up as the standard of competition increases. With this result the Colts magic number to clinch the division shrinks to one, meaning a Tennessee loss or an Indianapolis win next week will ensure their participation in the play-offs. With Tennessee playing Denver the Colts would be wise to put the champagne on ice.

Looking forward to tonight's Monday Night game in Seattle we have a battle between two of the top quarterbacks in not just the NFC but all of football. Russell Wilson idolised Drew Brees when growing up, but if he has things his way tonight he could deal Brees a serious blow as he aims to win his second Superbowl title. Percy Harvin looks set to miss out for Seattle as he's suffered discomfort in the same hip that kept him out for the first half of the season. The Seahawks are also without cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond after they both violated the leagues substance abuse policy. However I still think that Seattle has enough about them on defense to outperform Rob Ryan's unit on the opposite sideline, and when you factor in home-field advantage I think that just about gives Seattle the edge. I may be wrong (I often am), but I'm going to go for a 27-24 home win.

That's all I have for tonight, I'll hopefully be back with the American Football Focus podcast later in the week depending on mine and Scott Taylor's availability. However one thing I will definitely be writing about is the second test match in Cricket's Ashes between England and Australia, which you can read all about at my other blog Fred Stanley Sport. Don't forget to have your say in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley.

Week 12 NFL Predictions

Manning V Brady XIV is the marquee match-up of week 12

Another Sunday is upon us, which means another slate of NFL games are on the horizon. Last week saw the last undefeated team in the league, Kansas City, lose that distinction, having been beaten by Denver in the Rocky mountains. In this weeks marquee match-up those same Broncos will take on New England in the fourteenth instalment of Manning V Brady. Here's my take on that game and all the other NFL action on tap for this weekend.

New York Jets @ Baltimore

The Jets have been a nightmare to predict this season thanks to their incredible inconsistency, leaving me with a tough decision to make as they take on the Ravens this week. Baltimore suffered a tough overtime defeat in Chicago last Sunday during that weather affected game, while the Jets were blown out by the Bills. With neither team in resounding form the fact that Baltimore are at home and have a better quarterback  tilts me in their direction. Jets 17, Ravens 28

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Both of these teams enter week 12 at 4-6 and three games out of Cincinnati in first place in the AFC north with their play-off hopes rapidly fading. Coming off a surprising win against the Lions Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have a bit of momentum coming into this one, and while Cleveland have been steady if not spectacular since Jason Cambell took over at QB it's difficult seeing them outscoring the Pittsburgh offense if it can replicate last weeks Antonio Brown led outburst. Steelers 23, Browns 14

Tampa Bay @ Detroit

All of a sudden the Lions are under a bit of pressure to win this game following their aforementioned let down against Pittsburgh last week,  and with the Buccaneers on a two game winning streak they'll be wary of the threat they pose. Mike Glennon has been widely praised for his performances under centre for Tampa Bay, but he'll have a tough assignment here as the fearsome Detroit defensive front bears down on him. At home it's hard to look past Detroit in this one, but expect the Buccaneers to put up a fight in the motor city. Buccaneers 20, Lions 30

Minnesota @ Green Bay
 
In normal circumstances the Packers would  be heavy favourites to beat the Vikings at Lambeau field, but with Aaron Rodgers walking wounded and Scott Tolzien struggling in his place Minnesota will be sniffing an upset. However I don't think the Vikings have enough to genuinely trouble Green Bay, who know shutting down Adrian Peterson and putting the ball in Christian Ponder's hands will be key. So long as Tolzien doesn't have too much to do and can just hand the ball of the Eddie Lacy the Packers should pick up the win and head into Thanksgiving with a 6-5 record. Vikings 17, Packers 24

Jacksonville @ Houston

One of these teams was expected to be terrible in 2013, the other not so much. But terrible they are, and absolutely no one should choose to watch this game over any of the other early kick-offs unless they're being held at gun point. The Texans just appear to be in such a mess, with a quarterback controversy spawned by Gary Kubiak's decision last week to bench Case Keenum for Matt Shaub mid-game. The Jaguars are a bad, bad team but they know this is a prime opportunity for them to pick up win number two of the season. The Texans are so hapless I can actually see that happening. Jaguars 21, Texans 14

San Diego @ Kansas City

The Chiefs ability to bounce back from their first defeat of the season will be tested here, although their AFC west rivals San Diego have been on a poor run of form lately and lost to Miami 20-16 last week. Going into Arrowhead is a tricky proposition for any visiting team, and although Kansas City were beaten in Denver they gave a good account of themselves and their excellent defensive unit should be able to keep the Chargers stuttering offense in check enough for Alex Smith to lead them back to winning ways. Chargers 13, Chiefs 24

Carolina @ Miami

This is a classic trap game for the Panthers, travelling to play Miami on the road after a statement win over New England on Monday night. With Carolina on a short week and on the road they could come unstuck in South Florida, but with a stellar defense and Cam Newton playing the best football of his career they should, on paper, have enough to deal with those obstacles comfortably. The Dolphins know they need a win to keep pace in the AFC east, but they couldn't have asked for a more difficult game and the Panthers should reinstate their credentials as a major contender in the NFC despite coming off a short week. Panthers 26, Dolphins 21

Chicago @ St. Louis

The Rams have emerged this season as the 'ugly sister' of the NFC west, lagging behind the other three teams in the division as the only team below .500. Chicago on the other hand are tied for the lead in the NFC north even with Jay Cutler struggling with injury, mainly thanks to the emergence of Josh McCown as one of the leagues most reliable backup quarterbacks. St. Louis have a very good defensive front so they should be able to put pressure on McCown, but the Bears solid running game led by Matt Forte gives McCown a useful out. Unfortunately the Rams have been dealing with a quarterback injury of their own, and even though Kellen Clemens hasn't been as bad as feared he'll have a tough time putting points up on the Bears vaunted D. Expect a road win with Chicago keeping pace in the play-off race. Bears 24, Rams 16

Indianapolis @ Arizona

Cardinals coach Bruce Arians hosts the team with which he won the NFL coach of the year award last season in a fascinating encounter between two play-off contenders. Arizona may have beat Jacksonville last week but that achievement should be taken with a pinch of salt, and despite Carson Palmer improving with each game I still don't trust him to out-duel the Colts Andrew Luck. While Luck is without Reggie Wayne he's good enough to utilise his remaining weapons, but it could be a great game with Arians able to call upon his intimate knowledge of the Cardinals opponents. Colts 31, Cardinals 23

Tennessee @ Oakland

Coming off a mini bye week the Titans will fancy their chances of upending Oakland, who this week anointed Matt McGloin their starter at quarterback. Yes, McGloin was impressive in defeating Houston last week. But he's an undrafted rookie who struggled to hold onto his job at Penn State. I'm yet to be convinced he can be a steady signal caller in the NFL, and in this battle of 4-6 teams that could be the difference. The Titans raced out to a lead against the Colts two Thursdays ago and despite the fact they couldn't hold onto it I was impressed with Chris Johnson and their running game. If Johnson can repeat that performance the Titans should have no trouble scoring on Oakland, who recently allowed Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles to put up 49 points against them. Titans 28, Raiders 19

Dallas @ New York Giants

A crucial NFC east battle, a win for New York would make it five in a row and tie them in the standings with the fading Cowboys. Famed for struggling in December, Tony Romo has been unable to keep up his stellar early season pace which is worrying for Jerry Jones' boys. However the porous Giants defense should be a helpful tonic for Romo, Dez Bryant and co, who have the potential to score heavily in the Meadowlands. Eli Manning is in the midst of his worst professional season and while Dallas don't have a great defense they have at times shut down teams this season. They're unlikely to keep New York completely in check, but that shouldn't matter if the Giants defense holds true to form. Dallas to win, and move into a first place tie with Philly as a result. Cowboys 34, Giants 21

Denver @ New England

Sunday Night Football pits two old enemies, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, against each other at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots know they'll need to bounce back quickly from last weeks controversial loss at Carolin if they're to secure a bye in the first round of the play-offs, which is easier said than done against probably the leagues elite team. Manning was able to throw from a clean pocket last week against KC and if he can do the same this week then I'd strongly expect the Broncos to win and move to 10-1. Wes Welker has been cleared to play following his concussion, adding even more spice to this game as he comes up against his former team. If the Patriots are forced to play catchup, which I think they will, the Von Miller led Denver pass rush will be licking their lips at the prospect of flying off the ball towards Tom terrific in the New England pocket. The Pats may be able to keep up for a while, even deep into the game, but I can't see them overhauling the juggernaut Broncos tonight. I'm predicting a big win for Denver, sending the Patriots to their second consecutive defeat. Broncos 34, Patriots 28

San Fransisco @ Washington

In the battle of struggling dual threat quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick takes the 49ers into FedEx field to take on Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. However though both teams are struggling on offense the 49ers defense gives San Fran a significant advantage, as the likes of Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis should combine to shut down Alfred Morris and the Redskins running game. Washington were shut out for three quarters in Philly last week and following this tough fixture they could well find themselves cut adrift at the foot of the NFC east. One last point: RG III's teammates seem to be getting fed up of the sophomore's attitude, so keep your eyes on the sideline during this one especially if Washington once more find themselves struggling to score points. 49ers 27, Redskins 21

So those are my picks, let me know what you think in the comments or on twitter @fredjstanley. It's an Eagles bye week so I'll be able to pay more attention to some of the other games this evening, although the New York-Dallas game will be my main focus due to it's relevance to the birds in the NFC east standings.

 

Quarterback Draft Class Retrospective: 1999

Donovan McNabb enjoyed a successful NFL career unlike some of the other quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 1999 NFL draft

Following on from my earlier post featuring the 1998 draft class which produced some notable quarterbacks (hello Peyton Manning) and some more obscure signal callers here is my review of the following years class in 1999. The last draft before the turn of the century included five first round selections at the position, including the first three picks of the draft, and in total 13 quarterbacks were selected that year. For more information on each individual player and to find out how they fared during their NFL careers keep it right here.

Tim Couch, 1st round (1st overall selection), Cleveland Browns

Unfortunately for the Browns and Couch this pick never worked out as the University of Kentucky star was drafted first overall by the expansion Cleveland franchise. Although he was pressed into action in just his second week in the league Couch never truly settled in as an above average quarterback, and it could justifiably be reasoned that his selection has haunted the Browns ever since. The former All-American passer lasted just five seasons in Cleveland and following his release in 2004 despite a number of try-outs he never again made it onto a regular season NFL roster, a staggering fall for someone with such high pedigree. Couch registered underwhelming yet consistent statistics during his stint with the Browns, with a career completion percentage of 59.8 and passer rating of 75.1 well below the expectations set for someone drafted so high. Couch threw more touchdowns than interceptions over the course of a season just twice in his career, in his rookie year (15 TDs/13 INTs) and his final season in the NFL (7/6). To add insult to injury Couch also received a six game drug related ban from the league in 2006 - when he wasn't even registered to a team.

Donovan McNabb, 1st round (2nd overall selection), Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid struck gold with McNabb, who would go on to break almost every single Eagles passing record before he left the team in 2010. Although he never won a title the Syracuse product led Philly to four NFC championship games and one Superbowl appearance. A dual threat at the position, McNabb was a throwback for Eagles fans to the days of Randall Cunningham and earlier this year his number 5 was retired by the franchise. One of McNabb's most impressive feats was becoming the first QB in league history to throw more than 30 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions in a single season, which he accomplished during the teams run to Superbowl XXXIX in 2004. Less successful stints with Washington and Minnesota followed after his time with Philadelphia came to an end, but they remain just a small stain on a decorated career.

Akili Smith, 1st round (3rd overall selection), Cincinnati Bengals

Much like Couch, Smith wound up becoming a monumental bust for the Bengals and by missing on a QB with such a high draft choice the move set the team back years in their development. In hindsight Smith was a risky selection for Cincinnati due to the fact he'd had just one productive year at college, his senior season at Oregon where he won Pac-12 player of the year honours. Smith started just 17 games during his four years in the NFL, all with the Bengals, and his final passer rating of just 52.8 best exemplifies just how bad he was. While neither Couch or Smith inhabited ideal situations for a young quarterback they clearly had major flaws that weren't picked up during the draft process. Still, it would have been interesting to see if McNabb could have succeeded where Couch and Smith failed, and vice versa.

Daunte Culpepper, 1st round (11th overall selection), Minnesota Vikings

Culpepper's NFL career far more closely resembled McNabb's than either Smith or Couch's, yet he still didn't quite his the heights that #5 did in terms of wins and play-off success. One of Culpepper's main attributes was his outstanding size. During his playing days he stood 6 foot 4 inches tall (he probably still does) and weighed in at 255 pounds (he probably still doesn't). He also possessed good speed for a quarterback, enabling him to rush for 2,652 yards and 34 touchdowns during his career. His overall passer rating of 87.8 actually ranks 14th all-time in the NFL, although having played in an era where passing is easier than ever before that record loses some of its luster, not to mention the fact that he had Randy Moss to throw to while playing for the Vikings. However his accomplishments are still impressive, and in 2004 he set an NFL season yardage record for a quarterback (passing and rushing) although that record has since been broken. Following an acrimonious end to his time with the Vikings Culpepper suffered several severe knee injuries and struggled during stints with Miami and Oakland amongst others, resulting in a sad end to a career which contained an almighty peak and a couple of play-off appearances.

Cade McNown, 1st round (12th overall selection), Chicago Bears

McNown had a miserable NFL career, playing in just two seasons for the Bears before he was traded to Miami and later San Francisco before retiring. In 15 starts he threw 19 interceptions and just 16 touchdowns with a mediocre 67.7 passer rating. Of the top 12 selections in the 1999 draft eight would play in the Pro Bowl during their career; Couch, Smith, McNown and linebacker Chris Claiborne were the only four who didn't.

Shaun King, 2nd round (50th overall selection), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The one thing King has which the five men drafted ahead of him don't is a Superbowl ring, earned while playing for Tampa Bay in 2002 (although King himself didn't suit up for the game). He enjoyed mild success during his time with Tampa, starting all 16 games in 2000 and recording a respectable 75.8 passer rating while throwing 18 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. However he would start just three games over the remainder of his career, including two for Arizona in 2004 - his last season in the NFL.

Brock Huard, 3rd round (77th overall selection), Seattle Seahawks

Probably less famous than his brother Damon, Brock Huard never really made much of an impact in the NFL. Huard saw action in parts of three NFL seasons including four starts (all in 2000), with his four year spell in Seattle briefly interrupted by a two year stint with the Colts. His final stats actually read quite well; four touchdowns, two interceptions and a QB rating of 80.3. However he saw such limited playing time that those stats can be mostly rendered meaningless.

Joe Germaine, 4th round (101st overall selection), St. Louis Rams

I'll admit I'd never heard of Germaine until I started researching this article, and the most interesting thing I learned about him is that he took two years out of college to complete a Mormon mission. His NFL career was slightly less interesting, although he did pick up a Superbowl ring as Kurt Warner's back-up on the victorious Rams team in 1999. Germaine only ever threw 16 passes in the NFL, all in his rookie season, completing 9 of them including a solitary touchdown. He did however also throw two picks that season. Germaine also served time with the Chiefs and Bengals before he was out of the NFL by the start of the 2003 season, before going on to enjoy a productive career in Arena League Football.

Aaron Brooks, 4th round (131st overall selection), Green Bay Packers

Although Brooks never played a down for the Packers, he was stuck behind both Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck on the depth chart, he enjoyed a successful NFL career largely thanks to a six year stint with New Orleans. During his time in the big easy Brooks set several franchise marks including career and single season touchdown passing records (both since broken by Drew Brees). Unfortunately for Brooks and the Saints his only play-off win came in his first season with the team, against the then defending Superbowl champion Rams. A short lived spell in Oakland followed his release from the Saints in 2005, but all told for a late fourth round pick Brooks delivered fantastic value considering some of the busts further up this list and a career passer rating of 78.5 represents a very respectable career.

Kevin Daft, 5th round (151st overall selection), Tennessee Titans

Kevin, who it should be said has a frankly ridiculous or some might Daft name (sorry), failed to make an impact upon the NFL and bounced around several practice squads including Tennessee, San Diego, San Francisco, Atlanta and eventually Tennessee once more. He did however set an NFL Europe record by throwing for 30 touchdowns in the 2002 season. Taken just 20 spots after Brooks, Daft's career is more representative of the kind of career you expect from a quarterback taken so late on in the draft process.

Michael Bishop, 7th round (227th overall selection), New England Patriots

Did you know actor Jamie Foxx is Bishop's cousin? Thank me later for that. Bishop actually had a very distinguished college career with Kansas State, breaking several school records and earning All-American recognition. However his time in the NFL with New England was short lived and after two seasons spent backing up Drew Bledsoe he was released. Bishop was able to become a success in both Arena League Football and the Canadian Football League following his brief NFL career, which in the grand scheme of things means he's been successful in every phase of his football life with the exception of the NFL, better than most seventh round picks manage.

Chris Greisen, 7th round (239th overall selection), Arizona Cardinals

Greisen's career has followed a fascinating path, beginning with a three year term as the Cardinals third string QB. Appearing in just five games Greisen threw just 16 passes, including one touchdown, during his original stint in the NFL. After he was released he became one of the stars of Arena League Football, a common career path for quarterbacks from this draft class it would seem, where he was voted AFL offensive player of the year in both 2007 and 2010. Greisen also set since-broken AFL records for single season passing yards and touchdown passes. Despite having been out of the NFL since 2001 Greisen was amazingly picked up by the Dallas Cowboys nine years later in 2010, spending a week on the active roster before being released. After once again going back to the AFL Greisen was signed again by the Cowboys in 2011, this time to their practice squad, before being released last year. With his NFL career now seemingly over Griesen is a great example of persistence, and the fact that he was on an NFL roster as recently as three years ago when the likes of Couch and Smith were long gone from the league is a testament to his work ethic and determination.

Scott Covington, 7th round (245th overall selection), Cincinnati Bengals

Covington was the second quarterback taken in this draft by the Bengals, and I'm pretty sure the Bengals didn't envision him lasting longer in the NFL than first-rounder Akili Smith. However Covington himself didn't pull up any trees in the pro's and unlike some of the other late round selections on this list he failed to make a career for himself after his release in the CFL, AFL or any other-FL's.


Notable undrafted free-agent quarterbacks: Anthony Wright

So there you have it, an in depth look at the 1999 quarterback draft class featuring a fair few busts but also a couple of late round gems and a borderline hall-of-famer in McNabb. I'll be back later in the week with a new episode of the American Football Focus podcast, but you can let me know what you think of the class of '99 before then by leaving a comment or tweeting me @fredjstanley.