What to Watch For This Sunday

Can Andy Reid lead the Chiefs to 4-0?

Week four of the NFL season began on Thursday when the San Fransisco 49ers destroyed their division rivals St. Louis on the road 35-11, and continues this afternoon with another 13 games. Here I break down five things to watch when you settle down in front of your television sets as the season reaches the quarter mark.

Will Kansas City and the Giants recent form hold true?

The unbeaten Chiefs welcome the winless Giants to Arrowhead Stadium this afternoon in a must win game for New York if they are to salvage their season. However Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, who of course coached against the Giants multiple times while in Philadelphia, has turned the Kansas City franchise around and has led the team to more wins already in 2013 than they managed in 2012 when they finished 2-14. Eli Manning was sacked seven times last week and Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston leads the league in sacks with 7.5, so the G-Men will have to contain Houston and the rest of the Kansas City pass rush if they are to be successful offensively this week and get into the win column.


Can Ahmed Bradshaw continue to outshine Trent Richardson for Indy?

After giving up a first round pick in next years draft to acquire Richardson, Colts head honcho Chuck Pagano  predominantly gave the ball to incumbent running back Bradshaw who broke out for 95 yards on 19 carries as Indianapolis upset the 49ers 27-7. In comparison Richardson could only muster 35 yards on 13 carries in his Colts debut. Because the Colts face the hapless Jaguars today they should, in theory, be in a position to run the clock down in the second half and both RBs could see plenty of reps. It'll be interesting to see if last week was an aberration in terms of the split of carries and whether or not Richardson can make the most of his opportunities as he tries to justify his hefty price tag.

Which team will kick-start their season with a win in London: Pittsburgh or Minnesota?

Both the Steelers and the Vikings are yet record a win this season, unfortunately diluting the quality on show in London this evening. However the game should be tight which is more than can be said for some of the other International Series games in the past. The London game (or games this year, the first where two will place) throws up a different set of challenges than usual for NFL teams as they adjust to a different time zone, different practise facilities and a different environment in general. Neither team is loaded with talent but the Vikings do have Adrian Peterson, a genuine superstar who they'll look to as they attempt to grab a W in front of a sold out Wembley Stadium.

Can Peyton Manning keep up his historic start to the season?

Through three games Peyton has 12 TDs and no interceptions, on pace for a 64/0 ratio over the course of the entire season. Obviously the odds of that actually happening are long, but he does has a real chance to beat Tom Brady's record of 50 TD passes in a season set back in 2007 if he maintains his current form. The Philadelphia Eagles secondary has been awful so far this year so Manning could enjoy another stellar day as he picks on the likes of Nate Allen, Cary Williams and rookie safety Earl Wolff in the Eagles secondary. Additionally, thanks to the up tempo Philly offense Manning should get plenty of opportunities to get his hands on the ball and things could get really ugly in the thin Colorado air. As an Eagles fan this match-up is the type that gives you nightmares before a game.

Are Seattle for real? Can anyone stop them?

The Seahawks (3-0) have been mightily impressive so far this season, while the Texans haven't been too shoddy themselves on their way to a 2-1 record. With just one loss between them this game might just turn out to feature the highest quality on show this evening, so make sure when 6 o'clock (GMT) comes around you've got it on your screens. New England versus Atlanta should also be a humdinger in the night game, but while both of those teams are strong with top tier QBs I think both Seattle and Houston are more rounded and the Seahawks D could be the best in the league. Keep an eye on Texans receiver Andre Johnson  and his battle with Seattle corner Richard Sherman, where two of the premier players in the league at their respective positions go head to head. The player who wins that individual battle for their team could go a long way to securing the overall victory in this contest.

So those are the five things I'll be keeping an eye out for as the action gets underway in an hour or two. Let me know what you're watching by leaving a comment or tweeting me @fredjstanley. Here's to a top day of football, both stateside and in London.

Reaction to the Blockbuster Trent Richardson Trade

Next stop: Indy..

Late last night the Cleveland Browns sent their star running back Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for their first round pick in next April's college player draft. Richardson himself was the third overall pick in 2012, two spots below his new teammate and Quarterback Andrew Luck.

The move is surprising and spectacular in equal measure for a number of reasons. Firstly, trades during the season are normally limited to fringe players and late round picks. These trades themselves are rare enough so to see an elite talent like Richardson change scenery is, in one word, shocking. Another reason the trade caught everyone off guard is the talent level involved. Players do get traded for first round picks, albeit infrequently, but usually these moves are a stretch made by Quarterback needy teams. Defensive end Jared Allen is one exception (he moved from Kansas City to Minnesota for a first, second and third round pick in 2008), with Darrell Revis this past off-season another. However while both of those players are elite (or were elite at the time of the trade) both were veteran players in the league, not sophomores like Richardson. Andy Reid is famous for swindling opposing coaches when trading his back-up QB's for draft picks, but even though he managed to get second round picks for both A.J Feeley and Kevin Kolb he never netted that elusive first rounder (note that both trades were also made during the off-season).

The final reason the swap is unusual is that by making this move the Browns have, in effect, given up on the 2013 season after just two games. It's a gutsy move and one that won't be popular with the majority of the Cleveland fan base, but I can see the reasoning behind the decision. With a new owner (Jimmy Haslam) and CEO (Joe Banner) in place the move helps the new regime break farther away from the old one and the acquired draft pick could should be used to draft Quarterback Brandon Weeden's replacement next April. After an 0-2 start making the play-offs in 2013 is highly unlikely despite the AFC north's lack of top tier teams, and running back has increasingly become a position that can be addressed in the later rounds of the draft. The trade actually more closely resembles a baseball trade than a football one by nature. In baseball, teams that are out of contention come the trade deadline often look to deal sought after veterans for minor league prospects who can help the team down the line. While the Colts didn't receive a prospect as such in the deal they did obtain a high draft pick which in all probability will be turned into a vital piece of their teams future.

From the Colts side of the deal the move reflects a 'win now' attitude as Indy looks to build on their play-off appearance last season. Even though Richardson is in just his second year in the league and is only 23 it's worth remembering that running backs have a notoriously short career expectancy in the NFL. Ten years of high end production from Richardson is very unlikely. This is where a trade for a RB differs from one for a QB; you expect the latter to produce at a high level (health permitting) until his mid-thirties as opposed to mid-to-late twenties. For the trade to be a success the Colts need Richardson to produce right away.

But what about Richardson himself? Is he worthy of the lofty price tag that was paid for him? I'm not so sure. His statistics in the league thus far during his career are underwhelming: in 17 games he has 1,055 yards at 3.5 yards per carry along with 11 rushing touchdowns. He has, admittedly, been playing for a team with a poor offensive line and an even poorer Quarterback. Yet try telling that to Adrian Peterson or Jamaal Charles, who have both thrived in less that ideal offensive situations. Richardson was a great college back and has fantastic potential; but the pressure is definitely on for him to deliver immediate results if he's to live up to expectations in his new city.

I firmly believe that trades, much like the draft, cannot be truly evaluated until at least two years down the line. Often trades that initially look like masterstrokes turn out to be a disaster. Maybe the Browns draft the leagues next star QB with the Colts first round pick. Maybe Richardson helps lead Indianapolis to a deep play-off run this season. However without the benefit of hindsight this trade can't yet be judged one way or the other, and it'll be a while before we have answers to the questions this deal has posed.

Three Up, Three Down from Week 2; MNF Prediction

Copyright ESPN

Beginning with a sloppy contest between the Jets and Patriots on Thursday night week two of the NFL season saw plenty of close finishes and talking points as the season really kicked into gear. Below are three players, coaches or entire units who enjoyed the best and worst of the second week of the season, as well as my prediction for tonight's Monday Night Football match up between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Both have started the season 0-1 and the contest will be crucial to both teams chances of usurping the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC north.

Three Up

Phillip Rivers

The San Diego QB lit up a porous Philadelphia secondary on his way to 419 yards and three touchdowns as the Chargers bounced back from their week one collapse against Houston to move to 1-1. The game was as close to a must win as you can get this early in the season, yet Rivers excelled when it mattered most and he was especially good on third down where he lead his team to 10 out of 15 conversions. Rivers used all his tactical nous and veteran experience to milk the clock at every opportunity, in the process frustrating Chip Kelly and the Eagles up tempo offense while also giving his own defenders a much needed rest. Rivers had a somewhat below par 2012 season so he'll be delighted to have made a strong statement early doors in this campaign.

Mario Williams

Williams racked up 4.5 sacks during Buffalo's thrilling 24-23 victory against the Carolina Panthers. Like Rivers, Williams drew criticism in some quarters for his play last year after he received a monster contract from the Bills and this early season pass rushing extravaganza will have gone some way to quieting his doubters. Cam Newton isn't the easiest QB to bottle up thanks to his speed/size combo making Williams' effort, a Buffalo record, look all the more impressive. Buffalo could quite easily be 2-0 and although they find themselves just 1-1 thus far they look to have every opportunity to challenge a weakened New England in the AFC east.

Seahawks Defense

How do you stop Colin Kaepernick? CAN you stop Colin Kaepernick? Those were the questions being asked around the NFL after the 49ers offensively fuelled run to last years Superbowl and their excellent performance with the ball against Green Bay in week one, yet Seattle managed to limit the vaunted San Francisco O to just three points in last nights 29-3 rout. Seattle have the potential to be a genuine Superbowl contender themselves this year and while their offense led by Russell Wilson is efficient it's their defense which will win games on its own. Cornerback Richard Sherman talks a good game and he backed it up by limiting week one star WR Anquan Boldin to just one catch. Kaepernick was picked off three times; to put that in perspective he'd only been intercepted three times in his entire career spanning 17 games before last night.

Three Down

Ryan Lindell

For the second week in a row Tampa Bay lost in heartbreaking fashion, but rather than a penalty essentially costing them a win it was a missed 47 yard field goal by the usually dependable Lindell. Kickers have a tough gig and their mistakes are often highlighted more than any position on the field barring Quarterback, something Lindell will be all too aware of after his miss allowed New Orleans to drive down the field and beat the Bucs with a field goal of their own with just seconds left on the clock.

Mike Shanahan

No team has underwhelmed through two weeks as much as the Redskins, who were embarrassed yesterday by Aaron Rodgers and co in Green Bay. Robert Griffin III's health was the main topic of discussion heading into the season and although he's played in both games he hasn't looked anywhere near as explosive as he did last season. That can probably be attributed to rust for the most part; unfortunately for Shanahan the same can't be said of his defense. Philadelphia ran rough shed over the Skins in week one and Green Bay followed suit yesterday. For all the flaws in the Washington D allowing Green Bay's first 100 yard rusher (James Starks) for over three years is the most worrisome sign, and Shanahan is under real pressure already to turn things around in the ultra competitive NFC east.

Eli Manning

In the much hyped third instalment of the 'Manning Bowl' the younger brother failed to live up to his end of the bargain as his elder sibling Peyton showed him how it's done as Eli slumped to 0-3 in the series. Eli admittedly doesn't have too many options in the passing game this year and the running game is so bad Brandon Jacobs was re-signed during the week, but his four interceptions can't be blamed on a poor supporting cast. I'm firmly in the 'Eli is overrated' camp, and although he's often proved me wrong in the past I'd be very surprised if he led the Giants makeshift offense into the post season this year.

MNF Prediction - Steelers 17, Bengals 28

The Steelers were so bad in week one, especially on offense, that I can't see them winning this one. Ben Roethlisberger will do well to lead Pittsburgh to my predicted 17 points. I don't however think the defense will be able to stop Andy Dalton, A.J Green, who is truly elite, and the Bengals passing game. Comfortable hoem win.

 

Week 1 Early Games Recap

Copyright ESPN

Eleven of sixteen week one games are now in the books, including Thursday nights opener in Denver and ten early games this evening. As I sit here watching Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers take on Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay here's are my take on the games that have already taken place.

- Peyton Manning threw an incredible seven touchdown passes on Thursday night against Denver as the Broncos racked up 49 points. For all the talk of how much the Ravens would miss Ray Lewis it was their secondary that suffered, a unit that had to replace three quarters of its members over the summer. Future hall of fame safety Ed Reed left for Houston, corner Cary Williams signed for Philadelphia and Bernard Pollard, the oft penalised strong safety, landed in Tennessee. The absence of those three clearly showed up as Manning picked apart their replacements with surgical precision, and for a team that built a championship winning team on a strong defense that is a major concern. They won't face a QB as good as Manning every week, however, and the AFC north looks to be fairly poor offensively with Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati combining for just 40 points in week one.

- Speaking of Pittsburgh, they were upset 16-9 at home by the Titans. The opening play of the game was a boneheaded safety from Tennessee kick returner Darius Reynaud, who caught the ball at the one yard line before retreating and inexplicably taking a knee in the end zone. Those two points were all the Steelers could muster until garbage time in the fourth quarter, but more significantly for the hosts they lost centre Maurkice Pouncey for the season with what looks like an ACL tear. Pouncey was the one bright spot on a weak offensive line heading into the season and Ben Roethlisberger will have an even tougher time staying on his feet without Pouncey protecting him. Big Ben also looks short of options in the passing game with Mike Wallace now in Miami and the rushing attack appears incapable of picking up the slack.

- Tampa Bay literally gifted the Jets one in New Jersey thanks to the most idiotic play I've seen for a while. With Geno Smith casually ambling out of bounds at around midfield, and well out of field goal range, Lavonte David decided it would be wise to push Smith as he slowed down outside of the field of play. 15 yards were added to the play, and with seven seconds left Nick Polk dispatched his kick straight through the uprights. Smith wasn't great but he also wasn't nearly as bad as everyone thought he would be after his terrible pre-season, giving head coach and professional self publicist Rex Ryan a bit of respite from the pressure that comes with being better at talking a good game rather than coaching a good one. Both teams were as bad as each other in a sloppy contest, which doesn't bode well for either.

- Matt Ryan came just short of rallying Atlanta to a last minute victory in the Superdome against New Orleans as his fourth down pass with seconds left was picked off in the end zone after the Falcons had four attempts to score from within four yards. After the Saints had the worst defense in NFL history last season Rob Ryan, Rex's brother, should receive credit for keeping the high powered Falcons offense in check. Both Drew Brees and Ryan threw for over 300 yards but neither could strike the killer blow as both defenses turned the screw in the red zone. Steven Jackson ran for 77 yards on 11 carries on his Falcons debut and was perhaps slightly underused as Atlanta took to the air, ultimately unsuccessfully as Sean Peyton got the W on his return to coaching following his bounty gate induced suspension,

- Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson didn't quite have the monstrous games predicted in this battle of superstars as new Lions running back Reggie Bush stole the show. Bush went off for 90 yards rushing and 101 yards receiving along with a touchdown, while Christian Ponder did nothing to dispel doubts about his ability to be an effective NFL quarterback as he threw three interceptions. Ponder's errors would prove telling as Detroit emerged as winners by a score of 34-24.

- Buffalo lost a heart breaker to New England after Stephen Gostkowski kicked a 35 yard field goal with just seconds left on the clock to grant the Patriots a 23-21 win. Bills rookie E.J Manuel, the fifteenth overall pick in this years draft, was impressive as he threw for two scores and no picks. Former Ram Danny Amendola was sharp in his first game hooking up with Tom Brady, catching 10 balls for 104 yards as he helped offset the post season loss of Wes Welker. Shane Vereen rushed for 101 yards on 14 carries as the new look Patriots offense stuttered past Buffalo in their first game under new coach Doug Marrone, whose outfit put up much more of a fight than many people, myself included, expected.

- Old Eagles and new Chiefs coach Andy Reid won his first game in charge of Kansas City as they rolled Jacksonville 28-2. If you get a chance head over to NFL.com and find the highlight of Blaine Gabbert's second interception of the afternoon. It truly was the kind of play that gives hope to any casual NFL fan that they too can play quarterback with the pros.

- Indianapolis edged past Oakland late on thanks to an Andrew Luck touchdown scramble as the Colts were run close by Terrelle Prior and the Raiders. Prior was ridiculed as Oaklands QB choice before the game and though he threw two picks he rushed for 112 yards on just 13 carries as he demonstrated his dual threat capabilities. The fact that the game was even close should give Colts fans cause for concern as they attempt to make consecutive trips to the post-season, and they'll face far stiffer tests as the season wears on.

- Miami comfortably handled the Browns in Cleveland as the hosts week one record at home since their reinstatement to the league fell to 1-13. If Brandon Weeden has to throw the ball 53 times during a game, you're probably not going to win.

- Russell Wilson wasn't spectacular but he was efficient as he helped Seattle top the Panthers 12-7 in a defensive battle down in Carolina. Wilson completed 25 of 33 passes for 320 yards and a score and the Seahawks shut out the Panthers in the second half. Cam Newton only managed to pass for 125 yards, rush for 38 and did little to encourage fans who were worried by some of his sub-par performances last season.

- Chicago came back late at home to beat the Bengals 24-21. Chicago forced three turnovers including two picks from corner Charlies Tillman while Brandon Marshall (who else?) racked up 104 yards receiving on eight catches including one touchdown. A.J Green went for 162 yards and two scores and by now he has to be in any conversation about the best wide out in the league.

That's it from me on the games that have already concluded, so I'm going to get back to watching what looks like a great battle in San Francisco. Who's your money on in that one? Let me know in the comments, or on twitter @fredjstanley.


                                    

2013 NFC Season Preview

Following on from my AFC preview yesterday, here are my predictions for the ultra competitive NFC and the upcoming season, complete with rookie of the year and conference champion predictions. So just who do I think will produce the goods this year? Keep reading to find out..

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

There's not a lot between the niners and Seattle in the west, but for me San Fran's performances in the play-off's last season along with their stellar D gives them the nod. Colin Kaepernick was simply breathtaking on his NFL debut last season, with his most impressive performance being his almost single handed destruction of Green Bay at Lambeau Field in January. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are also the best inside linebacker combo in football. I have doubts about the 49ers ability to get back to the Superbowl because playing in such a tough division may take its toll, and Superbowl runners up have an infamous track record of failing to get back to the big game the following season (the last team to do so were the Buffalo Bills in 1994).

Seattle Seahawks*

Russell Wilson joins Kapernick on the list of most promising quarterbacks in the league following his dazzling rookie season, and he also has the luxury of being able to hand the ball off to the bruising Marshawn Lynch. Pete Carroll has built a very good defense in Seattle, although it'll be interesting to see how that unit fares without Gus Bradley running that side of the ball. The trade for Percy Harvin was supposed to give Wilson a legit deep threat but his subsequent injury means he won't play until week seven at the earliest.


St. Louis Rams

Coach Jeff Fisher began rebuilding the Rams last season and the teams 7-8-1 record was quite an achievement following the 2-14 debacle in 2011. QB Sam Bradford has been given a new weapon after Fisher drafted WR Tavon Austin eighth overall, although running back Steven Jackson's departure for Atlanta will leave a hole at running attack. The defense has also been rebuilt through the draft in recent years, with first round picks spent on Alec Ogletree (linebacker), Michael Brockers (defensive tackle), Robert Quinn (defensive end) and Chris Long (also DE) since 2008. Unfortunately for Fisher and the Rams the Seahawks and 49ers will be difficult to ocompete with at this moment in time, although the second wild card spot is within reach.

Arizona Cardinals

The Kevin Kolb era was mercifully ended this off-season when he was jettisoned to Buffalo (where he unfortunately suffered another concussion) However the man brought in to replace Kolb, Carson Palmer, has an equally unimpressive record since he came out of 'retirement' one and a half seasons ago. The Cardinals are very much in rebuilding mode and new coach Bruce Arians will know that his squad is in for a long season.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

In some ways, there are a lot of parallels to be drawn between the Patriots and Green Bay. Both have recent Superbowl success, an excellent coach and a future hall of famer behind centre. However both have also struggled to add another ring over the past few seasons in large part due to porous defenses, an issue the Patriots have done more to fix than the Packers. Green Bay does still have enough on both sides of the ball to remain perennial play off contenders, and while Greg Jennings loss isn't ideal the Packers still retain a wealth of recieving options led by Jordy Nelson.

Detroit Lions

Though the Lions stumbled to a 4-12 record in 2012 they actually started the season 4-4 before they capitulated and lost eight on the spin. Matt Stafford had a real down season which I expect him to bounce back from, and Calvin Johnson remains a monster of a receiver for him to target in the passing game. Ezekial Ansah was added in the draft to give the D a pass rushing threat, and combined with the duo of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley the Lions should have a fearsome defensive front. Their indiscipline sometimes holds them back, but it also makes them one of the most entertaining teams to watch in the NFL.

Chicago Bears

The Bears probably won't win as many games as they did last season (10), especially after they opted to surprisingly part ways with head coach Lovie Smith. Brandon Marshall is the teams one true weapon on offense and he's been struggling with injury this summer. The team couldn't reach agreement on a contract extension with long time linebacker Brian Urlacher, leading to his retirement. Chicago probably needs a couple of years to reload before they can think about rubbing shoulders with the leagues elite teams.

Minnesota Vikings

Yes, I know the Vikings made the play-offs in 2012. And yes, I know they have one of the best running backs in NFL history in Adrian Peterson. But as good as Peterson is he'll struggle to replicate his historical season, and Christian Ponder figures to continue to struggle at QB. Add Percy Harvin's departure to the mix and the Vikings could struggle to win half of the ten games they won a season ago.

NFC East

Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III has been declared fit for the Redskins season opener on Monday night against Philadelphia, and though his playing style may well result in further injury down the line his understudy Kirk Cousins looks to have all the ingredients to succeed in the NFL. Alfred Morris was a revelation at running back last seasonand combined with RG III there aren't many more potent ground games in the NFL. Brian Orakpo is one of the better rush linebackers in football.

Dallas Cowboys

Miles Austin is reportedly healthy after he struggled throughout last season with various leg issues, giving Tony Romo another stellar target opposite Dez Bryant. Defensively the team isn't as strong as it once was, with Jay Ratliff a shadow of his former self and the rest of the players adjusting to a new system (the team is moving from the 3-4 to the 4-3). It remains to be seen how Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware adjust to playing defensive end as opposed to outside linebacker, although they both remain elite pass rushers.


Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles finally parted ways with Andy Reid at the end of last season, hiring former Oregon supremo Chip Kelly to replace him. Kelly will be hoping that Michael Vick can return to his old self after he won a quarterback battle with Nick Foles as the team operates Kelly's patented up tempo offensive system. LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown might be the best one-two punch at running back in the NFL. The defense will struggle, but expect points galore from the Eagles offense.


New York Giants

I don't think the Giants will be terrible this season, but in a competitive division often compared to college footballs SEC in some quarters two or three wins could be the difference between worst and first. Eli Manning gives them a chance to win most weeks, but he's not his brother Peyton so asking him to carry a team on his own is a step too far.


NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan and co. won 13 games a year ago with an absolute stacked offense, which could be even better this time around. Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are joined by former Ram Steven Jackson who'll add punch to the ground game that Michael Turner could no longer provide. Osi Umenyiora was added to the D line and he'll have plenty of opportunities to rush the passer as opposing teams play catch up.

New Orleans Saints*

Sean Peyton is back as coach following his suspension for the bounty gate scandal and as a great coach with a Superbowl ring he'll make the world of difference to New Orleans. Last year was practically a write off as the team dealt with Peytons absence amongst others, but Peyton and quarterback Drew Brees reunion should lead to a return to the Saints former offensive prowess. Defensively they were disgustingly bad last season, I mean some of the play would make you vomit. But the stability of the returning coach should help the unit gain at least some respectability.

Carolina Panthers

After beginning 2012 3-9 the Panthers won four straight to finish just below .500, which could prove a mirage heading into this season. Cam Newton is an exciting player but he's showed immaturity during his NFL career and the defense is very average with the exception of Luke Kuechly, who is already one of the best defensive players in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs also finished 7-9 last season, but unlike Carolina I see little upside on their roster. Josh Freeman has been a mediocre QB since he entered the league and the rest of the team is little better. Unfortunately I can't see an improvement this year in Tampa, and it's unlikely that they'll make too many waves in this campaign.


Rookie of the Year

Tavon Austin is an exciting player with supreme speed and with Sam Bradford chucking him the football he'll be in a great position to make an immediate impact in the league. Lane Johnson looks primed to have a solid debut season in Philly so he's another candidate for the award, while Ezekial Ansah should do well in Detroit.

NFC Conference Winner

Atlanta Falcons

 That wraps up my predictions for the coming season and all that remains to be said is I hope this season provides as many memorable moments as the last one did (Superbowl power cut notwithstanding!).

2013 AFC Season Preview

With the new season slated to get underway tomorrow with the defending Superbowl champions Baltimore heading to Denver, the time has come for me to offer my predictions for the upcoming campaign. I've broken the preview into two parts, AFC and NFC (the latter will be published tomorrow), offering a brief summary of where I think each team is heading into the season. I've also included a rookie of the year for each conference, along with who I think will progress to Superbowl XLVIII in February. Without further ado, lets get started..

(* Denotes wild card)

AFC West

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are about as much of a lock to win their division as you'll see in the NFL this year, thanks in equal part to their stellar roster and the weak teams surrounding them. Peyton Manning was excellent in his first year in the Rocky mountains and there's no reason to expect anything different this time round, especially with Wes Welker in tow alongside Demetrius Thomas. The defense will miss Von Miller as he serves a six game suspension, but when it's all said and done the Broncos should find themselves as one of the conferences top two seeds.

Kansas City Chiefs*

New coach Andy Reid immediately traded for Alex Smith from San Francisco, and the QB will give the Chiefs their best signal caller since Trent Green. Jamaal Charles is a top tier running back but I have doubts that the pass happy Reid will bring the best out of him. The defense is also a work in progress, and while it shouldn't be terrible there are no difference makers on the roster and as a result I'd be surprised if Reid led his new squad to anything more than a 8-8 record. That could, however, still be good enough to make the post-season in a weak conference.

San Diego Chargers

Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates remain from a formerly prolific offense, but Darren Sproles absence has been felt since his departure in 2011 and the D is a weakness. Norv Turner paid the price for a terrible 2012 season and Mike McCoy, formerly the offensive co-ordinator of the rival Broncos has taken the reigns. He'll be charged with returning Rivers to his former self and reigniting a stagnant offense. Don't expect an immediate turnaround, rather signs of gradual improvement in 2013.

Oakland Raiders

Oakland haven't been relevant since they made the AFC championship game in 2002, and that doesn't figure to change this season. Terrelle Pryor was named their starting QB yesterday and his progress will bear following, especially as the team traded for former Seahawk and Packer Matt Flynn.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The reigning champs probably aren't as strong as they were last season following the loss of stars such as Ray Lewis (retired), Bernard Pollard (Titans) and Ed Reed (Texans). However they were able to sign QB Joe Flacco to a lucrative contract extension and Ray Rice remains one of the leagues best running backs. Anquan Boldin has also departed following a trade to the 49ers while Tight End Dennis Pitta will miss the season after he tore knee ligaments in training camp, so while another Superbowl title seems unlikely I think there's just enough talent on a well coached roster to retain the AFC north crown.

Cincinnati Bengals*

Bengals wide receiver A.J Green could well be the best player at his position in the league, and the defense benefits from the presence of thumping linebacker Ray Maluagua in the middle. However the rest of the team isn't quite so talented and QB Andy Dalton is yet to convince many, myself included, that he's the man to lead the franchise over the next decade or so. However I'm willing to give him and the rest of the team the benefit of the doubt and predict that Cincy will be playing into January once again come 2014.

Pittsburgh Steelers

 Mike Tomlin's men limped to an 8-8 record last season, in large part to an ageing defense that couldn't perform well enough to mask the teams offensive deficiencies. As long as Ben Roethlisberger is around they should be competitive, but a lack of a running game and Mike Wallace's departure for Miami won't help the veteran QB as he attempts to carry the team on his broad shoulders.

Cleveland Browns

Much like last year, the Browns should bring up the rear in the AFC north. Brandon Weeden actually looked fairly impressive as the season wore on and Trent Richardson has the potential to be a top five running back in the league. Unfortunately that probably won't be enough to produce a memorable season for long suffering Browns fans in one of the NFL's most competitive divisions, even though they're every so slowly improving towards relevancy.

AFC East

New England Patriots

If the Broncos are the biggest locks to win their division in 2013, the Patriots aren't too far behind. Tom Brady looked sharp in the pre-season despite Wes Welker's departure and Aaron Hernandez's, ahem, legal wranglings. The clubs +226 points differential in 2012 was the biggest in the league by some margin. Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo lead a stellar D, and with Bill Belichick at the helm don't expect anything less than another deep Patriots play-off run.

Miami Dolphins

Spring additions Mike Wallace and Darnell Ellerbe give head coach Joe Philbin two solid veterans on both sides of the ball, and Wallace in particular should help QB Ryan Tannehill mature in his sophomore season. I don't think the 'phins will be particularly great, but the rest of the division bar the Pats won't be either and as a result it would be disappointing for Miami fans if they didn't retain their second place 'title' this season.

Buffalo Bills

New head coach Doug Marrone earned rave reviews for his work with Syracuse in the college ranks, and while I don't expect him to pull up any trees in his first NFL season as a coach it should be exciting to watch him bring his fast tempo offense to the pro's. E.J Manuel was his QB of choice in the draft and he's been slated to start week one. Keep an eye on Buffalo, as I have a feeling within two seasons they'll be one of the leagues up and coming teams.

New York Jets

Rex Ryan is currently living on borrowed time, time that could very well be up before the season is out. Mark Sanchez was his chosen QB and he stunk, and then to make matters worse HE PLAYED HIM IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF A MEANINGLESS PRE-SEASON GAME WHEREUPON HE GOT INJURED. Sorry for the caps, but I just felt like I needed to really emphasis the idiocy of Ryan's inexplicable decision. Geno Smith will be fun to watch, but don't bet on him being much better than the man he's replacing, whether it's temporary or permanent gig.

AFC South

Houston Texans

The Texans are the best team in the AFC not quarterbacked by someone named Manning or Brady, and while Matt Shaub isn't in either of those two's league the rest of the Texans roster is fairly stacked. Arian Foster remains a very good back and Andre Johnson, when healthy, is a monster out wide. Brian Cushing yesterday signed a six year contract extension which will keep the teams best defensive player in town for a while yet. If, if Shaub can find another gear from somewhere the Texans could find themselves playing in the first ever cold weather Superbowl this January in New Jersey.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck was phenomenal last season as a rookie as the team rallied around each other in the absence of ill coach Chuck Pagano. The Colts appeared to have an incredible team spirit as everything came together in a somewhat magical season, something which I'm not sure can be repeated . The other red flag for me when I look at Indy is their -30 points differential in 2012, contradictory to their 11-5 record. This would appear to indicate they got a little lucky and their convincing loss in the playoffs to Baltimore convinced me that they may be in line for some regression.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags mustered just two wins a year ago, but new owner Shahid Khan looks like he could be a great owner for the team and his energy is infectious. New uniforms, new head coach (Gus Bradley) and a new attitude should see Jacksonville get up off the AFC south floor. Blaine Gabbert now has second overall pick Luke Joeckel to protect his blindside and though receiver Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the season Maurice Jones Drew gives Gabbert another weapon to lean on in the mean time.

Tennessee Titans

Unfortunately I don't see much to get excited about when analysing the Titans, and as a result I think they'll sink to the bottom of a fairly tough division. Jake Locker isn't a very good quarterback, and while Chris Johnson may well bounce back from a terrible 2012 he's about the only weapon Tennessee has on offense.

Rookie of the Year

E.J Manuel

I think Manuel will excel in Marrones system, despite his limited weapons, and he should benefit from the rise of mobile QB's around the league such as RG III and Russell Wilson. The top three picks from the draft are all in the AFC and are also contenders for the award, although numbers one and two Eric Fisher and Joeckel will suffer from playing an unglamourous position such as offensive tackle. Dion Jordan could challenge if he racks up double digit sacks for the Dolphins, which would be an impressive feat.

Conference Winner - Denver Broncos

Thanks for reading, let me know what YOUR predictions are in the comments or on twitter @fredjstanley and I'll be back tomorrow with my NFC preview.
 

Eight Intriguing Players Available Following Cutdown Day

Copyright Fox Sports

On Saturday afternoon each of the 32 NFL franchises trimmed their rosters down from 75 players to 53. Every year coaches and executives are forced to make some difficult decisions, and this year was no different. However one teams trash often proves  anothers treasure, and chances are there will be a number of future NFL contributors who were let go this weekend. Here's a list of players who are either talented, well known or both and have grabbed my attention as potential diamonds in the rough amongst the hundreds of newly unemployed footballers.

Tim Tebow

Tebow certainly suits the  'well known' category more so than 'talented', but it's worth remembering that he led the Denver Broncos to a play-off win over Pittsburgh just eighteen months ago. Tebow was acquired by the dysfunctional New York Jets last off season and he never really stood a chance within the organisation where Mark Sanchez is considered untouchable. Following his release from the Jets, Tebow was picked up by New England, but some poor pre-season performances meant that the former Florida Gator had blown possibly his last opportunity to make it in the NFL - as a quarterback. I'd be very surprised if another team picked him up right away, but Tebow could prolong his time in the league if he's prepared to convert to a tight end/running back hybrid role.

Danny Watkins

Like Tebow Watkins was a first round pick, selected by the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2011 draft. However Watkins was 26 (nearly 27) at the time and although he was considered talented by NFL scouts his age was a concern even then. The lockout that followed that years draft didn't help Watkins and he never came close to living up to his potential in Philly, and as a result his release comes as no surprise. Watkins run blocking is his strength so he could catch on with a team who likes to pound the rock, although his reported lack of passion for the sport he only took up as a 22 year old is a major red flag. The Miami Dolphins are rumoured to have had Watkins in for a tryout, so that's one potential destination for the now 29 year old. (Update:  Watkins has in fact just sign for Miami on a one year deal.)

Jermaine Cunningham

Another player released by the Patriots, Cunningham was the teams second round pick back in 2010. The defensive end never established himself as a starter although he has at various stages seen significant time on the field as part of a line rotation. Cunningham is only 25 and with his NFL experience he's one of the better options available on the defensive side of the ball, leading me to believe he'll get a few more chances yet to forge a career in the league. Having played in the 3-4 during his entire tenure with the Pats look for other teams who run that system, such as the Steelers, Jets and Ravens, as potential landing spots.

Jason Smith

Smith is instantly recognisable as the second overall pick from the 2009 draft but he has so far failed to come anywhere close to matching the performances expected of a player drafted that high. The offensive lineman has bounced around from the St. Louis Rams to the Jets and then New Orleans, before most recently re-signing with the Jets until he was dumped for a second time by Rex Ryan and co. It appears that Smith may well have played his last game in the league, a sad tale for someone so talented.

Jonathan Dwyer

The Steelers struggled to move the ball on the ground last season and Dwyer could be seen as part of the problem, as he averaged just 4 yards per carry. He did rack up over 600 yards, however, and at 229 lbs and just 24 years of age he still possesses enough upside for a look see from running back needy teams. According to Steelers beat writer Gerry Dulac the Steelers grew "tired of Dwyer's lack of dedication to his job", so character concerns are clearly one of the reasons a player as talented as him is available. According to Dulac the Browns and Ravens are interested in securing Dwyer's services. Any such role would obviously be as a back up, as the two teams employ Ray Rice and Trent Richardson, respectively.

Brian Banks

Banks' story is an inspiring one, but his dream of playing in the NFL appears to have hit the skids after Atlanta released him this week. Banks was a top high school linebacker before being convicted of rape, a conviction that was later overturned after his accuser withdrew her accusations - but not until he'd already served five years in prison. Unfortunately Banks is already 27, but it would be nice to see a team pick up the 'backer. He's practice squad eligible so he could end up there for someone, although it is very rare for a team to use up a developmental spot on someone his age.

Jimmy Clausen

The former Notre Dame signal caller was released by the Carolina Panthers three years after they drafted him in the second round. Clausen was extremely poor back in 2010, his rookie year, when he led the Panthers to a 1-9 record in his ten starts. The teams poor performance that season allowed them to draft Cam Newton first overall and the rest, as they say, is history. Clausen retains some pedigree, however, and I'd be interested to see how a QB and offensive guru could develop his game and turn him into a viable backup. It's a bit of a long shot, but the situation he inherited in Carolina was dire and a change of scenery could see him tap into some of his potential - if any remains.

Vince Young

Young looked like he may have disappeared from the NFL forever after the Eagles released him following the teams ill-fated 2011 spending spree, highlighted by Youngs "dream team" remark. However Green Bay gave him a chance to compete for a roster spot this summer and Young looked like he may have just snuck onto their 53 man when fellow QB Graham Harrell was released. The team ultimately decided to keep just two QBs however, and Young was subsequently released. He did play fairly well during the pre-season and didn't cause any disruptions to team chemistry, so perhaps he'll get another chance down the road. With Young and Matt Leinart both now unemployed the 2006 quarterback draft class is looking weaker by the minute, and a stark reminder that the draft is far from an exact science.

Are there any more names you think could still have an impact in the NFL? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @fredjstanley. I'll be back tomorrow with my AFC preview for the upcoming season, which begins on Thursday night.