American Football Focus Podcast #3

Calvin Johnson and his recent exploits are up for discussion on this weeks AFF podcast

This weeks edition of the American Football Focus podcast is up, and you can listen to it by clicking here. I'm joined by Bill Burton, my former teammate with the Sussex Thunder and we discuss a number of topics including the future of the NFL in London and Europe, the Jacksonville Jaguars futility, Calvin Johnson and tonight's Thursday Night Football match-up between Cincinnati and Miami. Let me know what you think in the comments and be sure to follow my Mixcloud account (where I upload the podcast every week) to receive future updates as and when I release podcasts on that site. You can also tweet me: @fredjstanley to have your say on the NFL and even register an interest in appearing in future episodes of the podcasts.

What's Next for the NFL in London?

Copyright Vikings.com

Following another successful International Series game at Wembley last night between Jacksonville and San Francisco the future of American Football in England looks promising, albeit uncertain, beyond the three games scheduled for next season. This year saw the first time that two regular season games in the same season were held in London, and with the amount of International Series games gradually increasing it's become reasonable to ponder what the natural progression for America's biggest sport is on these shores.

While there has been much speculation as to what might transpire in the future lets first take a look at what we already know about the situation.  One thing for certain is that the demand for football in England is there, as shown by the fact that the eight International Series games held at Wembley have all sold out since the first one took place between the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins in 2007. The fan base over here is growing and have shown a willingness to keep coming back for more, regardless of the teams in action. It's also worth noting that the games played at Wembley haven't featured the most attractive match-ups nor have they been particularly exciting contests. Although the first game in 2007 featured the eventual Superbowl champion Giants the Dolphins were on there way to a 1-15 season, while in recent years UK fans have been subjected to watching terrible teams such as this years Jaguars (currently 0-8) and the 2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13) in action.

One aspect of the International Series' future that has been set in stone is that the Jaguars will be back to play a 'home' game at Wembley in each of the next three seasons. Jacksonville may not be a good team, in fact the 2013 edition could be remembered as one of the worst in recent NFL history, but one positive is that they'll likely earn the top pick in next April's draft and be in a position to draft a Quarterback from what is considered one of the deepest classes in memory. An exciting prospect such as Teddy Bridgewater would not only give the franchise hope for the future but also increase British supporters interest in watching the Jaguars play. With Jacksonville owner Shahid Khan having acquired Premier League football team Fulham F.C over the summer he has established strong ties to the city, which may or may not precede a push for the Jaguars to relocate to London in the future.

Last week the six contestants in next years three International Series games were confirmed, as well as the specific match-ups that will take place. The Jaguars will host the Dallas Cowboys, one of the leagues most iconic teams and a big draw for those interested in attending the game. I'd argue that of the 14 previous Wembley contestants only New England has the same kind of pulling power in the UK as the Cowboys, although San Francisco certainly have a large fan-base themselves thanks to their success back in the 80's. The second confirmed match-up pits Detroit against Atlanta with the latter designated as the home team, while the third game sees Oakland 'visit' Miami. Both have the potential to be intriguing encounters, although it goes without saying that there is still a lot of time between now and next season, meaning plenty can change for each team in the way of on and off-field personnel. Detroit currently look like the best of the four teams and boast stars such as Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, yet both Oakland and Miami have the potential to be good teams and have shown flashes this year so that game could be a contest between two contenders. Atlanta may have been a let down so far in 2013 but as long as they have Matt Ryan at Quarterback they should remain at least somewhat competitive and a bounce-back season in 2014 is far from unlikely.

Looking at the situation from a more long term perspective, Peter King (he of Sports Illustrated and Monday Morning QB fame) revealed in his column today that the NFL is considering a number of options at this moment in time, including moving an existing franchise to London or creating an entirely new one as part of the venture. Another option was increasing the number of games hosted annually in the UK to eight, with a rotation policy installed in an effort to ensure that no team was at a disadvantage. Of the three options I firmly believe that the first two comfortably trump the third. I don't like the idea of having eight near random games at Wembley each season and there are a number of reasons why. I think that by not presenting the fans in England with a consistent product there is little chance of the current fan base expanding, primarily because supporters won't develop an affinity for any one team. Having one or two games a season at Wembley featuring a mixture of teams is fine because supporters treat the games as a one off event where there is an element of novelty involved, and as a result they are willing to outlay the money for a ticket once per annum, even if their team isn't playing. However I strongly believe that if there are as many as eight games per season the same fans are more likely to pick and choose which games they attend due to a combination of factors, primarily financial. As a West Ham United F.C supporter I go to watch them a dozen or so times a season, but I'd have no interest in paying £50 to go and watch two football teams who I have no affinity with playing against each other. I think the same logic applies to British NFL fans, who are far more likely to keep coming back if they have the opportunity to watch "their" team develop, even if that team doesn't initially achieve success. It'll be interesting to see how well the Jaguars are supported against the Cowboys next season and again in 2015 and 2016, and whether or not their following swells with each game could well dictate whether their future lies in North Florida or North London.

Moving an existing franchise to England will be difficult for the league to do, not least because of the negative press the move would receive from the American press and the inevitable backlash from tenants of the teams previous location. That's understandable; after all, imagine if the Premier League discarded an English team to make room for a side from across the pond. As a result adding an expansion team could be the best option, however that would leave the league unbalanced at 33 teams and cause fresh problems. The leagues current structure is ideal, with the 32 teams split evenly into eight divisions across the two conferences. An odd number of teams in the NFL is undesirable, yet the creation of a London franchise could also give the league the perfect reason to add another team in America's second largest television market after New York - Los Angeles. Roger Godell appears to be set on increasing the NFL's revenue streams wherever possible, and by adding two franchises to two burgeoning markets he has the opportunity to do just that and kill two birds with one metaphorical stone. None of the cities that currently own an NFL franchise would lose out as a result of the move, and though travel logistics remain an issue for a London based franchise after eight International Series games you'd to figure that particular problem could be easily overcome.

The NFL is entering uncharted territory with its overseas experiment, and with the passionate UK fans so far passing every test thrown at them the league looks set to expand the International Series program even further. Which direction Roger Godell and co eventually choose to go remains to be seen.

What do you think of the prospect of London having its very own NFL franchise? Have your say in the comments or by tweeting me: @fredjstanley

Week Eight NFL Picks

Suh and the Lions will attempt to hold off the Cowboys in Detroit

After going 8-6 with my picks (minus the Thursday night game) last week, I'm back with predictions for week eight of the NFL season including the second London game this year, where Jacksonville "hosts" San Francisco at Wembley Stadium. It's the first time the NFL has held two regular season games here in England with three scheduled for next year, and a successful weekend could go a long way to bringing a franchise across the pond further down the line. Without further ado, here's what I think will happen this weekend in the National Football League.

Dallas @ Detroit

Although both teams sit at 4-3 the Cowboys, thanks to the frighteningly weak NFC east, are sitting far more comfortably in the play-off race than the Lions. The Dallas defense stifled the high octane Philadelphia offense last week, and they'll have to be equally on their game this Sunday against the likes of Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson. The Lions are coming off a disappointing loss against the Bengals so they'll be looking to bounce back at home in one of just two games this weekend that pits teams with winning records against each other. Unfortunately for Detroit while I think their offense can match the Cowboys for talent I have doubts that their defense can do likewise. It should be close, but I'm going for a road win. Cowboys 27, Lions 24

San Francisco @ Jacksonville

The London faithful are unlikely to witness a close contest in this game with the 49ers looking like one of the best teams in the NFC while these Jaguars may have struggled to win a game in NFL Europe. San Francisco appear to have reverted to running some of the things on offense, such as the read option, that they did last season on their way to the Superbowl and Colin Kaepernick has clearly benefited from the move. The Jaguars defense isn't as bad as their offense; however it's still mediocre and if they can keep this one close into the second half I'll be surprised, as will 85,000 people inside Wembley. 49ers 31, Jaguars 13

Cleveland @ Kansas City

Andy Reid's men look set to move to 8-0 against the struggling Browns, who have now lost two in a row after they had been 3-2. Jason Cambell gets the start at Quarterback for Cleveland after Brandon Weeden once again demonstrated he's not a starter in the league, though the Browns problems are more widespread than the identity of the man under centre. The Chiefs also have one of the best homefield advantages in football, not that they'll need it this week, so expect another efficient victory from KC as they extend what has been a remarkable winning streak. Browns 10, Chiefs 24

Miami @ New England

Following a contentious loss in New York last Sunday Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will know the Patriots need to bounce back against the Dolphins if they're to  reassert their supremacy in the division. Miami are coming off a poor loss themselves, in their case against the Thad Lewis led Buffalo Bills, but at 3-3 a win puts them just half a game behind New England in the standings. I'm tempted to pick the Dolphins and the upset, however New England could get Aqib Talib and Danny Amendola back from injury and combined with the fact they're playing at home I'll side with them this time. Dolphins 23, Patriots 24

Buffalo @ New Orleans

The Bills face a tough task this week as they head into the Superdome to take on the 5-1 Saints, who appear to be firing on all cylinders again this season with Sean Peyton back in charge. Thad Lewis has been a pleasant surprise for Buffalo since he took over for the injured E.J Manuel, however the Saints defense is much improved under Rob Ryan and combined with their high powered offense that combination should be more than enough to handle the Bills and strengthen their grip on the NFC south. Bills 20, Saints 34

New York Giants @Philadelphia

In the win column thanks to their Monday night win over Minnesota, the Giants head to Lincoln Financial Field with the opportunity to somewhat amazingly haul themselves back into the NFC east race. Philadelphia is without Nick Foles at QB and Mike Vick is questionable with his hamstring injury, so if Matt Barkley is forced into action the Giants would fancy their chances after he threw three picks in limited action last Sunday. The Eagles won the return match in New York earlier in the season and their defense has been improving, but without a competent Quarterback all of that is irrelevant. All signs point towards Vick giving it a go, and even if he can't run at full speed the fact that Philly has DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy who can move makes them favourites in a game between two flawed teams.  Giants 24, Eagles 30

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

The second of tonights games featuring two teams above .500 pits both of the Patriots conquerors so far this season against each other. I do think that the Bengals are a better team and Andy Dalton's encouraging play is a big reason why; although Geno Smith has performed well himself throwing and running the ball for the Jets. It's difficult to pick against the Bengals in this one, especially at home, but the Jets unpredictability makes it a game that could go in either direction. Jets 20, Bengals 23

Pittsburgh @ Oakland

Having started the season 0-4 the Steelers have won two straight, all of a sudden making them relevant in the AFC again. While Oakland have the same record as the Steelers they appear to be heading in the opposite direction, however Terrell Pryor has played well enough to inspire hope for the Raiders down the line. Whoever loses this game is likely done for the season, and despite them having homefield advantage I think it could be Oakland's players who are booking tee times for January while the Steelers live to fight another day. Steelers 27, Raiders 21

Atlanta @ Arizona

 Despite having a ten day break since they were taken apart by the Seahawks the Cardinals are underdogs this weekend at home to the Falcons, who just about beat Tampa Bay last Sunday. Atlanta's status as favourites is largely based on the fact that they have Matt Ryan under centre while the Cardinals have Carson Palmer at QB, although without Roddy White and Julio Jones Ryan is short of options out wide. Steve Jackson could return which will aid the running game and ensure the Falcons have enough offense to outscore the impotent Cardinals. Falcons 27, Cardinals 20

Washington @ Denver

Two weeks ago, the Broncos were the toast of the NFL with a perfect record and the best player in the game at Quarterback. Now they're coming off a harrowing defeat in Indianapolis and Peyton Manning has two sprained ankles, although he is fit to play against the Redskins. Washington just about held on against Chicago minus Jay Cutler and despite Denver's recent wobble they should have a field day against one of the worst defenses in the league in the thin Colorado air. Redskins 24, Broncos 38

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Christian Ponder replaces the injured Josh Freeman as the Vikings attempt to rebound from their inept showing on Monday night against the Giants, unfortunately they probably won't find cooperative opposition in the form of the Packers. Green Bay look every bit the play-off team at this stage of the season - Minnesota don't. Unless Adrian Peterson has one of the best games of his distinguished career this one won't even be close. Packers 28, Vikings 14

Seattle @ St. Louis

This NFC west tussle became more predictable the moment Rams QB Sam Bradford was ruled out for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Percy Harvin probably won't return to action this week the Seahawks have a well balanced offensive attack that hasn't missed him too much up to this point, and even if Seattle can't crack 20 points I have a hard time seeing the Rams scoring two or more touchdowns with Kellen Clemens making his first NFL start in over two years against one of the leagues best defensive units. Seahawks 26, Rams 10

 So there are my picks for this week, let me know what you think in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley. I'll be back during the week with the American Football Focus podcast. To all of those fans at Wembley, just think: you too could play for the Jaguars!

  

American Football Focus Podcast #2

The second installment of the American Football Focus podcast is up and running over at mixcloud, and you can listen to it here. Scott Taylor is once again my guest, and we cover subjects including a few of last weeks games and the recent spate of knee injuries around the league. Let me know what you think in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley.

Week 7 NFL Picks

Rob Gronkowski: Set to return in week seven?

With six weeks of the NFL season in the books and the standings starting to really take shape here are my predictions for week seven. With many fascinating match-ups, not least Peyton Manning's return to Indianapolis, this evenings slate of games should not be missed.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Neither of these teams have had the seasons they hoped for, and as a result the play-off implications are minimal. However Atlanta still has a shot to resurrect their season with a win, and if they can get the W they could find themselves in a tie for second in the division with Carolina. Running back Steven Jackson remains injured and Roddy White will miss the first game of his NFL career. Nonetheless the Buccaneers showed nothing at home to Philly last week to suggest they can stop Matt Ryan from connecting frequently with Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Home win. Buccaneers 17, Falcons 27

St. Louis @ Carolina

This game pits two teams who routed their opposition last week against each other, with both well in the hunt for a wild card spot. The Rams destroyed Houston, on the road, 38-13 and Carolina were equally impressive in beating the Vikings 35-10 in Minnesota. While both Cam Newton and Sam Bradford are playing good football at the moment I think the Rams defense is more advanced than Carolina's, so although the Panthers enjoy home-field advantage in this one I'm going to go with the visitors in what could well be a tight game. Rams 24, Panthers 23

Cincinnati @ Detroit

Another game where both sides are well matched, with both the Bengals and Lions 4-2 in the early going. While Cincinnati have been winning predominantly with a stingy defense Detroit have weapons such as Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and rookie sensation Joseph Faruia to call upon when they have the ball. As good as A.J Green is, Andy Dalton often struggles to get the job done at QB for Cincy and as a result I'm picking the Lions and their explosive offense, especially with Megatron nearing 100%. Bengals 21, Lions 28

San Diego @ Jacksonville

Although they remain winless the Jaguars at least put a fight last week against Denver, while the Chargers made it back to 3-3 with an upset over the Colts. Antonio gates is having a bouncback season and new addition Danny Woodhead has given the San Diego offense a dimension it previously lacked. This could be a chance for the Jaguars to get in the win column in 2013; sadly I just don't think the Chargers are bad enough to let that happen, and the motivation to move to 4-3 is all they'll need to do exactly that. Chargers 30, Jaguars 24

 Buffalo @ Miami

This AFC east battle is a fantastic opportunity for Miami to make a move in the division, especially with Bills QB E.J Manuel still sidelined. Thad Lewis will once again start at Quarterback for Buffalo, and with running back C.J Spiller not fully fit the Dolphins defense will fancy their chances of shutting the Bills O down. Ryan Tannehill has played steady football and although Mike Wallace is yet to break out Miami should have more than enough on offense to score the points that will take them to 4-2, and potentially just a half game behind New England. Bills 13, Dolphins 21

New England @ New York Jets

Things are looking up for the Patriots, who pulled off a stunning last minute win over the Saints last week and who also have TE Rob Gronkowski medically cleared to play for the first time this season, although he remains questionable. The Jets appear to be heading in the opposite direction and their terrible showing against Pittsburgh last week was troubling after some encouraging early season performances. Geno Smith will be pleased to see linebacker Jerod Mayo and cornerback Aqib Talib both ruled out for this one, although that won't be enough for New York to upset New England thanks to Bill Belichick's renowned mastery of rookie Quarterbacks. Patriots 27, Jets 16

Dallas @ Philadelphia

While neither team has been spectacular in reaching 3-3 this game represents the battle for NFC east supremacy. I think Dallas are a better team, and they could quite easily have beaten Denver two weeks ago. However since then they've lost DeMarco Murray and DeMarcus Ware to injury, while defensive lineman Jay Ratliff has been released. The Eagles have lost eight games in a row at home, a staggering and unwanted record, so really this game could be a case of who makes the fewest mistakes. I was tempted to go with Philly, but while they could score plenty of points their porous defense is just too bad to ignore and I can see Tony Romo having a field day against the Eagles secondary, with Dez Bryant the main beneficiary. I hope I'm wrong, of course. Cowboys 38, Eagles 34

Chicago @ Washington

The Bears have had a ten day break since they beat New York on Thursday Night Football, which I think gives them the edge heading into this game against the desperate Redskins. Chicago has played solid football all season and their defenses propensity for forcing turnovers combined with Washington's habit of committing them means that Marc Trestman's team should exit FedEx Field with a crucial win and a 5-2 record. Bears 28, Redskins 21

San Francisco @ Tennessee

Jake Locker is back for the Titans, who struggled with Ryan Fitzpatrick under centre in his absence. The 49ers were able to defeat Arizona at home last week with Frank Gore topping 100 yards and Colin Kaepernick throwing two TDs as he looks to emerge from his early season slumber. However Vernon Davis was the real star, as he caught both of Kaepernick's touchdown tosses and went off for 180 yards receiving. Even with Locker back in the fold beating San Fran will be a tough ask for the Titans, who while looking solid defensively have really struggled to score points. 49ers 24, Titans 17

Cleveland @ Green Bay

The Browns three game winning streak is now well in the rear view mirror, and they won't be returning to winning ways this weekend against a very good Packers unit. The most surprising thing about Green Bay has been their stifling defensive play, which combined with their potent offense makes them a touch match-up for any team. Eddie Lacy has injected some life into the Pack running game, another positive as they look set to move to 4-2, with the Browns falling below .500 in the process. Browns 19, Packers 31

Houston @ Kansas City

Case Keenum looks set to become the first Quarterback in NFL history to see his first regular season action against the Chiefs in KC, as he goes up against what is probably the best defense in football. A lot of pundits have drawn comparisons between Keenum and Tony Romo, who was also undrafted. However while Romo has gone on to have a very good career he did suffer some growing pains early on, and it's unlikely the Kansas City D will give Keenum an easy ride this evening. Last weeks blow out loss at home to the Rams was extremely troubling for the Texans, and Andy Reid extraordinarily looks set to take his team to 7-0 after a 2-14 campaign a season ago. Texans 16, Chiefs 24

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

These two waning AFC north powers meet in a must win game for both sides. The Steelers will be looking to build on last weeks win over the Jets, their first of the season, while the Ravens could move into a tie for the division lead should the Bengals lose in Detroit. I'm not convinced about either team, but with their season hanging by a thread I have a feeling the Steelers will move their winning streak to two games. Whether I'm right or not remains to be seen. Ravens 17, Steelers 20

 Denver @ Indianapolis

The game of the week, Peyton Manning returns to the city where he made his name as an NFL superstar and led the Colts to 11 play-off appearances and one Superbowl title. He'll square off against his replacement Andrew Luck, who himself looks primed for a successful NFL career and has Indianapolis well positioned to make the play-offs for the second consecutive year with a 4-2 record. Unfortunately for Colts fans that will probably read 4-3 after tonight's game thanks to the irrepressible  Broncos offense and a defense that will be bolstered by the return of star linebacker Von Miller from his substance abuse related ban. It should be a fascinating contest with plenty of points for both teams, but I think Denver could be home and hosed before the closing stages. Broncos 37, Colts 28

Minnesota @ New York Giants

In what has been statistically proven to be the worst Monday Night Football match-up this late in to the season ever, the hapless Giants host the equally terrible Vikings. Josh Freeman makes his first start in purple and gold and that adds intrigue to an otherwise unglamorous encounter, but he's new to the system and with the Giants desperate to finally get a win this season I sense they'll take the opportunity to end their losing streak, sinking the Vikings to 1-5 in the process. Vikings 19, Giants 28

So those are my predictions for week seven, let me know if you agree or disagree in the comments or tweet me @fredjstanley. If you haven't listened to this weeks podcast you can access it via this link at Mixcloud. Make sure you check back for next weeks edition, and if you did listen you'll have noticed I correctly picked a Seattle win on Thursday Night Football, while my guest Scott Taylor unsuccessfully chose the Cardinals.

NB: New Orleans and Oakland are on their bye this week.
 

American Football Focus Podcast #1

This evening I recorded the inaugural American Football Focus podcast, featuring my friend and fellow NFL fanatic Scott Taylor. I think it went extremely well considering my very limited technical skills, and the roughly 43 minute long show can be found at this link. The podcast contained segments discussing the weekends main story lines including the Patriots comeback against New Orleans and the Giants futility, as well as a debating who should start at QB for the Eagles and giving our list of the five worst Quarterbacks in football.

If you'd like to comment on the podcast and have any suggestions for future editions you can either leave a comment here, tweet me @fredjstanley or Scott @sstaylor13. Additionally you can drop me an email at fredex1@hotmail.com. You can also let me know if you'd like to appear in future editions of the podcast. That's all from me today, I hope you enjoyed listening to the podcast as much as I enjoyed producing it and I'll be back before the weekend for predictions for Sundays games.

Week Six Late Games, SNF and MNF Picks

Can RG III get it going on the ground and through the air?

Carrying on from my early game predictions on Thursday, here are my picks for the late and prime time games on the week six schedule. I'm 1-0 so far this week thanks to Chicago's win over New York on Thursday Night Football; lets see if I'm as successful this evening..

Jacksonville @ Denver

This game is one of the all-time NFL mismatches on paper, and that's reflected in the points spread which is a record 28 points in favour of the Broncos. That beats the previous record set when the undefeated Patriots hosted Philadelphia in 2007. I'm not sure Denver will cover the four touchdown margin, but Peyton Manning and co. should come close in a convincing win. Jaguars 20, Broncos 38

Tennessee @ Seattle

Seattle is a notoriously difficult place to visit, and their demolishing of San Francisco at home earlier in the season reaffirmed that point. The Titans have been surprisingly good this season but this game may prove to be beyond them. I'm expecting a good contest, although Jake Locker's hip injury means that Ryan Fitzpatrick starts. The former Bills Quarterback has been serviceable when called upon this season however Locker's stellar play was one of the main reasons for the Titans resurgence in 2013. Unfortunately for Titans fans his absence gives the Seahawks a slightly easier path to 5-1, which I fully expect them to achieve. Titans 19, Seahawks 27

New Orleans @ New England

In what promises to be a great game the Patriots will attempt to bounce back from last weeks defeat to the Bengals by shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints. However New England is still without the injured Rob Gronkowski and their inability to score points has been a concern all season. Home field advantage should give them a leg up over a Saints side who are typically more potent in the Superdome, but Brees has good career numbers versus Bill Belichick and momentum is certainly on his and Sean Peyton's side going into this one. Whisper it, but we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of the Patriots dynasty. Saints 30, Patriots 21

Arizona @ San Francisco

This NFC west match-up pits two 3-2 sides against each other. If the Cardinals have outperformed many peoples expectations this year the 49ers have underperformed theirs and a large part of that has been Colin Kaepernick suffering from second season syndrome (or in American terms, a sophomore slump). Anquan Boldin will be looking to have a big game against the team that drafted him, but San Francisco will have to complete more passes then they did a week ago when Kaepernick completed just five. I firmly believe the 49ers are the better team, especially on defense, but Arizona will make it difficult in a competitive game. Cardinals 24, 49ers 27

Washington @ Dallas

Another divisional affair, Dallas go into this one as strong favourites armed with the NFL's second most prolific offense. Alfred Morris should be able to move the ball on the ground for the Redskins against a questionable Dallas defense, but the real game changer for Washington is Robert Griffin III and he'll have to step his game up both passing and rushing if they're to hang with big D in this one. How Tony Romo and the 'boys bounce back from their devastating loss to Denver last week will also be crucial. Although I have faith in RG III to get it going I have a hard time putting any in the Washington defense, and for that reason I'm going with Dallas in a shoot out. Redskins 31, Cowboys 35

Indianapolis @ San Diego

This game almost qualifies as a must win for the Chargers who have some ground to catch up in the AFC west with both Kansas City and Denver 5-0. However the Colts will be difficult opponents and are 4-1 themselves, with Andrew Luck getting better and better under centre. Reggie Wayne continues to produce despite his advanced age and Trent Richardson adds a power runningelement to the Colts offense. Ryan Matthews return should help the Chargers, but they've been on the decline since they beat the Eagles in week two and I expect that slide to continue tomorrow night. Colts 28, Chargers 19

Let me know what you think, I hope you're enjoying the early games and don't forget to follow me @fredjstanley for my instant take on the action.

Week Six TNF, Early Game Picks

"Man, I wish I was my brother"

Aside from my season preview I haven't put up any predictions during this NFL season thus far. That's about to change, as I give my two cents on the early portion what promises to be another entertaining weekend of football kicking off with the New York Giants travelling to Chicago to play the Bears tonight on NFL Network's Thursday Night Football.

New York Giants @ Chicago

The 3-2 Bears should have far too much for the 0-5 Giants in this one as they look to pull ahead in the NFC north race. New York looked awful in losing to another poor team in Philadelphia last Sunday so don't expect them to pull off the upset in this one. New York has eight more turnovers than the any other team in the league, which after four games is an astounding number and demonstrates just how inept they are offensively. Giants 17, Bears 28

Green Bay @ Baltimore

Two of the last three Superbowl champions square off in what figures to be one of the better games this week. Home-field advantage could be crucial as Baltimore look to build off of their narrow win in Miami, while the Packers will attempt to move to 3-2 without injured linebacker Clay Matthews. However even without Matthews the Green Bay D is much improved, and Baltimore's lack of offensive output so far in 2013 makes me doubtful that they'll be able to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and the high octane Packers passing attack. Packers 34, Ravens 21

Cincinnati @ Buffalo

Coming off a fantastic win over New England the Bengals have an opportunity to make people really stand up and take them seriously by winning back to back games against the AFC east. They'll benefit from Bills QB E.J Manuel missing out through injury, with Thad Lewis starting in his place. Lewis doesn't inspire confidence and the Cincinnati defense has played well of late, so unfortunately for Bills fans Sunday could drag a bit. The Buffalo D isn't too shabby itself so they should keep it close, but that's about the only positive I can see them taking out of Sunday in what figures to be a low scoring affair. Bengals 20, Bills 10

Detroit @ Cleveland

It's not all that surprising that Detroit is 3-2. It is, however, surprising that the Browns share the same record. Calvin Johnson's status is up in the air after he missed the defeat to Green Bay last week and should Megatron miss out again the Browns will really believe that they can reach 4-2. Their defense has been outstanding since Trent Richardson was traded and the play of Quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden has been good enough win three straight games. This game requires some guess work owing to the question mark over Johnson's fitness, but I have a gut feeling that Cleveland will keep rolling and make it four in a row. Lions 23, Browns 24

St. Louis @ Houston

Matt Shaub is persona non grata in Houston right now following his record breaking ineptitude, but fortunately for him the Rams have equally sucked this year. Beating the Jaguars by two touchdowns at home, as they did last week, is nothing to brag about and the Texans have a great opportunity to move back to .500. The Houston running game is still one of the best in the league so whatever mistakes Shaub makes in this one should be glazed over. I'm going for a bounce back win in the lone-star state for Gary Kubiak's men. Rams 20, Texans 30

Oakland @ Kansas City

This divisional match-up is an opportunity for the Chiefs to move to 6-0. That's a sentence I never expected to be writing before the season began, but 'Chiefs' and '6-0' are two phrases that I expect to be using a lot more after this game is done. Oakland has been better than expected as well, but they're not in the same class as KC who have an efficient offense and stifling defense on hand. The rivalry between the two teams should make this a feisty encounter, but don't expect an upset as the Chiefs continue their unbeaten start in front of the Arrowhead faithful. Raiders 16, Chiefs 24

Carolina @ Minnesota

Josh Freeman was picked up by the Vikings during the week but Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier has said he won't start in this game, leaving Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel to man the Quarterback position. Neither team has been good this year, in fact both have been woeful, so this isn't likely to be a classic. I have to choose one team to win though, and because they're at home and they have Adrian Peterson I'm going for the Vikings. Sorry Panthers fans. Panthers 17, Vikings 21

Pittsburgh @ New York Jets

Alongside the Giants, Pittsburgh has been the most disappointing team in the NFL this year. In contrast the Jets have been surprisingly good. Geno Smith looks competent which is more than could be said for the man he replaced, Mark Sanchez. I still don't fully trust  the Jets, however, and their roster has enough holes for me to go against them in what appears to be a classic 'trap' game following their impressive win over Atlanta on Monday night. I'm picking the Steelers to finally enter the win column in 2013. Steelers 27, Jets 20

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

Philly just about overcame the Giants in New York last week while Tampa Bay remain winless. Both teams have undergone change at QB with Nick Foles looking likely to replace the injured Mike Vick while Josh Freeman was released in Tampa, enabling Mike Glennon to start in his place. The Eagles aren't a great team but they are tied for the lead in the weak NFC east, and in comparison to the Bucs they may as well be the 1972 Dolphins. Road win. Eagles 35, Buccaneers 28

So there's my predictions for the first slate of games tonight and Sunday. I'll be back with my picks for the late games as well as Sunday and Monday night football. What do you think will happen? Let me know in the comments, or tweet me @fredjstanley.

Week 5 Headlines: Romo v Peyton Duel A Classic; Colts Come of Age and Brady's Streak Ends

Tony Romo: Mr. Unclutch

Yesterday was perhaps the most exciting Sunday of the NFL season thus far with some great (and not so great) individual and team performances. Here I give my take on the main headlines thrown out last night.

Shaub Benched as 49ers Roll Houston

 Matt Shaub last night became the first Quarterback in NFL history to throw a pick six in four consecutive games. It's not the kind of record you want as a QB, and Shaub was benched in the fourth quarter of a 34-3 blowout to rub salt into his wounds. The Texans are a good, well rounded team with elite talent on both offense (Andre Johnson) and defense (J.J Watt). However it's difficult to win championships in this league without a top tier signal caller and Shaub's performances this season have led to many wondering if he's good enough to take Houston deep into January. With Josh Freeman signing in Minnesota that avenue has closed for the team so it looks like the Texans will only go so far as Shaub takes them - a worrying proposition based on the last few weeks.

As far as San Francisco are concerned the game couldn't have gone better as they moved to 3-2 having begun the season 1-2. With Seattle losing in Indianapolis the 49ers are now just one game back of the division lead and their ability to shut the Houston offense down without the injured Patrick Willis will have been especially encouraging to head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Romo's Career Day Soured by Late INT

As a Philadelphia Eagles fan it's difficult for me to praise Tony Romo (or any Cowboys player for that matter), but credit where credit's due. The Dallas QB played tremendously in nearly leading his team to an upset over Peyton Manning's Broncos last night by throwing for over 500 yards and tossing five touchdowns, however many pundits will point to his interception with under two minutes left as the defining moment in this game, and a reminder that he has often failed to get it done in tight situations throughout his career. The game was just the fourth in NFL history where both teams scored over 40 points and the lack of anything resembling pass defense on either team is worrisome for their long term prospects. However though the Cowboys are just 2-3 they remain tied for first place in the NFC east with Philly and after the Eagles were humiliated by Denver last week Dallas remain the team to beat in that division.

The AFC west is a whole lot stronger than the NFC east though, and even though they won and remain undefeated the Broncos find themselves in a tie for first place with the 5-0 Chiefs. The potential for those two to meet in four weeks with both undefeated is mouth watering, as is the rematch two weeks later.

Bengals Knock Off Previously Undefeated Patriots

Cincinnati beat Tom Brady and the Patriots to move to 3-2 and a tie for first place in the AFC north, although they did it in unexpected fashion. Tom Brady had thrown a touchdown pass in 52 straight contests until yesterday, and by holding the Patriots offense to a pair of field goals Marvin Lewis's men broke that streak. The game ended on a Brady interception, the play being made by Adam Jones in wet conditions, and in the process handed New England their first loss of the season. Bill Belichick and co could quite easily have lost in week one to Buffalo, so it's not like they'd been dominant in reaching 4-0. However the nature of the loss was still surprising and indicates that Brady is in dire need of some help on the offensive side of the ball. As good as Brady is he can't do it all by himself and some poor blocking (Brady was sacked four times) and inconsistent play from his wide-outs did nothing to help the three time Superbowl champ in this one.

Meanwhile, the Bengals look like a genuine contender thanks in large part to their strong defense. Vontaze Burfict has come into the league as a rookie and made plays, while veteran corner Terrance Newman had a crucial pass breakup late in the fourth quarter. Cincy are joined at 3-2 in their division by Cleveland and Baltimore, who held off Miami, so while they're in perhaps the AFC's most competitive division they showed by beating the Patriots that they can mix it with the best in the conference.

Luck, Colts hold off Wilson and the Seahawks

Two of the Quarterbacks from last years draft squared off in Indianapolis yesterday, and it was number one selection Andrew Luck who got the victory over third round choice Russell Wilson. Seattle raced to a 12-0 lead, including a contentious safety that should've been a touchdown, but Indy rallied from that hole to claim a 34-28 win. It was Seattle's first regular season loss since last November and did little to erase fears that away from home they're not quite the same team as when they play in front of their own fans. The Colts moved to 4-1 on the season and combined with Houston's loss they clearly look to be the class of the AFC south. Andrew Luck wasn't spectacular, he threw for just 229 yards, but he was very efficient and the defense and special teams stepped up when they had to. A blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown for the Colts first score of the game and made up for the blocked punt that led to Seattle recording a safety minutes earlier.


Those were the main headlines from an action packed day of football, and be sure to watch the New York Jets take on Atlanta late tonight for what promises to be another close game. I'll be back later in the week with predictions for week six. As ever let me know YOUR thoughts on the games last night in the comments, or by tweeting me @fredjstanley.

Quarterback Draft Class Retrospective: 1998

The legendary John Dutton

One feature I've wanted to run for a while on here is a Quarterback retrospective series, analysing past Quarterback draft classes by taking a look at who was selected in what spot as well as finding out what became of these signal callers in the NFL. As the most important position in the league QB's are valued on a different scale to other players, and consequently at least one is almost always selected in the first five picks of the draft. Obviously the draft goes back much farther than 1998 but I chose that year as an ideal place to start due to a few players from that years class still playing in the league including the  number one overall pick from that year, Peyton Manning. Starting with Mr. Manning, lets get underway..

Peyton Manning - 1st overall pick (1st round) - Indianapolis Colts

Manning needs no introduction, and the fact that he's enjoying his finest ever start to the season at age 37 is nothing short of remarkable. I won't bore you with the statistics proving his greatness so far this year, but if you do want to take a look at them head over to Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column. The Colts famously were torn between Manning and Ryan Leaf, who I'll discuss more in a minute, when making this selection; Indy clearly made the right choice on this one. When you list some of Manning's achievements you get a sense for just how great he has been since he entered the league 15 years ago: 12 time Pro Bowler, six time Associated Press (AP) first team all-pro, four time AP Most Valuable Player (2003, 2004, 2008, 2009), AP Comeback Player of the Year (2012), seven time AP AFC Offensive Player of the Year and multiple Indianapolis Colts career records. There's nothing I can say about Peyton that hasn't already been said; I'll just finish this section by saying enjoy him while he's still playing, because there may never be another Quarterback like him.

Ryan Leaf - 2nd overall pick (1st round) - San Diego Chargers

From an all-time great to an all-time bust, Leaf's name is more commonly associated with JaMarcus Russell's than Manning's which is more of an indictment of his career as any statistic I could throw your way. Leaf is currently serving a seven year jail term for drug possession and burglary, so his sad tale extends much farther than the boundaries of the football field. While Manning's character is immaculate Leaf obviously never had the mental capacity to deal with the pressures of being a star NFL QB. His physical talents were never in doubt, hence his selection as such a high draft choice, but unfortunately for all involved he was out of the NFL within four seasons and the Chargers would have to wait three more years to find their Quarterback of the future, when they selected Drew Brees in 2001.

Charlie Batch - 60th overall pick (2nd round) - Detroit Lions

After two Quarterbacks were taken with the first two selections of the draft there was a gap of 58 picks before another was drafted, when Batch was selected by the Lions. One fun fact with regards to Batch is that he actually has more Superbowl rings (two) than Manning (one), although both came when he was backing up Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. Batch was given the opportunity to start in Detroit but due to a combination of factors including his inability to stay healthy he never truly excelled in the role and was discarded after Joey Harrington was drafted in the first round by the organisation in 2001. However once Batch landed in Pittsburgh he was able to cement a role as one of the NFL's more reliable reserve QB's and his ability to step up whenever Roethlisberger was absent led to him enjoying a ten year run with the Steelers. Now 38 and without a team Batch's career is likely over, but his final statistics are impressive for someone who spent almost his entire career as a back-up. A final Quarterback rating of 77.2 is serviceable enough and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 61-52 also demonstrates Batch's ability not to let his team down when called upon.

Jonathan Quinn - 86th overall pick (3rd round) - Jacksonville Jaguars

While Batch was able to fashion a role as a successful back-up in the league for a decade, Quinn fell short of the required standard when given the opportunity and was out of the league by 2005. He started two games in his rookie year with the Jaguars but struggled, most rookie QB's do in fairness, completing just 53 percent of his passes for a Quarterback rating of 62.4. Quinn would have to wait until 2001 to see game time in the NFL again, but in his one start that season the Jaguars lost 20-7 to Pittsburgh and despite throwing no interceptions Quinn also didn't throw a touchdown pass and was sacked five times. Released following that season he wound up in Kansas City for two years, where he didn't throw a single regular season pass, before playing the 2004 season for Chicago. Quinn actually saw the most NFL action of his career that year, playing in five games including three starts. However he threw just one touchdown and three picks as the Bears lost all five games he appeared in. His performances that year weren't enough to earn him another NFL contract but since his playing career finished Quinn has become a successful college head coach and is currently in charge of the  MidAmerica Nazarene Pioneers. Quinn only ever won one game as a stater in the NFL, and unfortunately that came way back in the final game of his rookie season.

Brian Griese - 91st overall pick (3rd round) - Denver Broncos

Griese was selected by the defending Superbowl champion Broncos, who would go on to defend their title in 1998 year in John Elway's swansong season. Griese had pedigree thanks to his father Bob, who was the Quarterback on the famous Miami Dolphins team that went unbeaten in 1971. Griese became the Broncos starter following Elway's retirement and in 2000 was named to the Pro Bowl after an excellent season in which he threw just four interceptions compared to 17 touchdowns in ten starts and posted a passer rating of 102.9. After one forgettable season in Miami as Jay Fiedler's back-up Griese signed for Tamp Bay where he led the team to all five of its victories that season in just ten starts, posting a TD-to-INT ratio of 20-12 and a QB rating of 97.5. A less successful season followed but that didn't stop Chicago from signing Griese to a five year contract in 2006 (which in hindsight seems ridiculous as that deal would've only expired two years ago). However he was unable to win the Quarterback job off of the maddeningly inconsistent Rex Grossman and before the 2008 season was traded back to the Buccaneers for an undisclosed draft pick, where he performed poorly in five games before retiring at the end of that year. Compared to most third round picks Griese enjoyed a productive career and won't be too disappointed with his final body of work in the NFL.

John Dutton - 172nd overall pick (6th round) - Miami Dolphins

No, I don't know who John Dutton is either. However after doing some digging it transpires that Dutton still actually plays football, albeit in the Arena Football League at the tender age of 38. Who knew! Dutton actually never played in an NFL game despite bouncing around between the Dolphins (who released him during his first training camp), the Atlanta Falcons and the Cleveland Browns. Fun John Dutton fact: he appeared on the cover of EA Sports first ever Arena League video game, 'Arena Football 2006'.

Matt Hasselbeck - 187th overall pick (6th round compensatory selection) - Green Bay Packers

Back to a more familiar name, Hasselbeck is best known for his nine year run as the Seattle Seahawks starting Quarterback between 2001 and 2010. During his time in Seattle Hasselbeck led the Seahawks to Superbowl XL, where they lost 21-10 to Pittsburgh (who's back-up QB at the time was Charlie Batch). In Green Bay Hasselbeck was stuck behind Brett Favre in the pecking order, which led to his trade to Seattle in 2001. In his first full-time season as a starter with the Seahawks in 2003 Hasselbeck earned a spot in the Pro Bowl, however his "we want the ball, and we're gonna score" proclamation upon winning the overtime coin toss in a play-off game in Green Bay turned out to be one of the all-time backfires when he proceeded to throw a game losing pick-six to the Packers Al Harris. Hasselbeck ended up with three appearances in the Pro Bowl and his 2005 season was deemed All-Pro worthy by the AP. He leads the Seahawks all-time passing yardage charts and finished his career with a completion percentage of 60.4, a very solid mark. Perhaps even more impressive is his play-off TD-to-INT ratio of 18-9. Hasselbeck was just three selections away from being a seventh round pick, so he should go down as one of the better late round Quarterback selections in modern NFL history.

Moses Moreno - 232nd overall pick (7th round compensatory selection) - Chicago Bears

Moreno wins the award for best name on this list hands down, although his NFL career was less exciting. He did manage to start three games in the league during his brief three year stint in the NFL but he completed less than half of his attempted passes while throwing only one touchdown. However the world is a better place for names like his, and hopefully someone who reads this will follow Moreno's parents lead and use alliteration when naming their children.

The 1998 Quarterback draft class will always be associated with Manning, and rightly so. However it shouldn't go unnoticed that both Griese and Hasselbeck were solid starters in the league for multiple years, Hasselbeck probably more so, while Batch also forged a nice career for himself with Pittsburgh. Leaf was clearly a huge bust and that drags the overall standard of the class down but with just two players selected in the first round I'd say this QB class performed above expectations thanks to the significant contributions from the latter round selections.